NBA Picks: Take Warriors -14 In High-Scoring Game vs. Mavericks

Kevin Stott

Friday, March 25, 2016 11:23 AM UTC

Friday, Mar. 25, 2016 11:23 AM UTC

Stephen Curry and the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors welcome Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks to the ORACLE Arena. The Warriors are favored by 14 points on the NBA odds board.

This is a big game for both teams, but for different reasons with Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and the hosts looking to stay perfect at Home while the visitors from the Lone Star State simply want to try to stay in contention for a Playoff spot the in Western Conference. Let’s look at the L10 meetings in this series, any Trends, Streaks, significant Injuries and such and offer up an NBA pick in a game in which both teams should score in triple-digits.


Odds Overview
Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors (63-7 SU, 32-0 Home) play host to the Dallas Mavericks (36-35 SU, 15-18 Road) at ORACLE Arena in Oakland on Friday night in the fourth and final Regular Season meeting between these two Western Conference teams this season, with the Warriors 2-1, losing the first meeting in Dallas on Dec. 30 (114-91) but winning the other two meetings by 20 and 18 points in games with 234 and 242 points scored in them, respectively. Oddsmakers Offshore have opened up (Thursday afternoon) the Warriors as huge 15-point favorites on the NBA odds boards (BetOnline) in this game with the Total (Points) opening up at 226½ (BetOnline).


Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks (38-32-1 ATS, 16-16-1 Road ATS) and Head Coach Rick Carlisle have lost 6 of their L10 ATS and seemed destined to be in a battle with the Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets and the Utah Jazz for one of three Playoff spots in the Western Conference, so this team hasn’t improved as much a it probably thought it would after shipping problem child PG Rajon Rondo out of Big D (Clippers) over the Offseason and getting PG Deron Williams and SG Wes Matthews to run the backcourt. In their last game on Wednesday, the Mavericks (300/1 to win NBA Championship, Ladbrokes) started the night in 8th place and at the .500 mark, but after losing to the Trail Blazers in Portland, 109-103, and seeing the Jazz edging the now 35-37 and 9th-place Rockets, 97-95 in Houston, Dallas is again under. 500 but suddenly up to 7th for the time being. Crazy. So the teams fighting to make the Postseason in the Eastern Conference are all above .500, yet the mighty West has teams near or below .500 fighting to make the NBA Postseason?

Who says the West is the best? (Besides Lizard King Jim Morrison.) And maybe we have a power shift, or decline of some aging teams in the conference? Whatever it is, it’s a fluid situation here, and will be for the next three weeks or so. Dallas has two players Out for the Season in SF Chandler Parsons (Knee) and SF Jeremy Evans (Shoulder) so guys like future Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki (18.8 ppg), C Zaza Pachulia (9.8 rpg), SG Raymond Felton, David Lee, Devin Harris, Charlie Villanueva, Salah Mejri, Justin Anderson and backup PG JJ Barea will all have to pick up the slack along with Williams (5.8 apg) and Matthews (11.9 ppg).


Golden State Warriors
It’s now news when the Golden State Warriors (40-29-2 ATS, 19-14-0 ATS Home) and Head Coach Steve Kerr don’t win a game and that seldom happens and never happens in the City By The City By The Bay, Oakland these strange days. In their last game on Wednesday night, Golden State (+11.1 PD) defeated the Clippers at ORACLE Arena, 114-98 as Stephen Curry had 33 points and backcourt mate Klay Thompson had 32 (7 3-pointers) in the win and lazy ATS cover for the hosts. Even though they have been off a bit lately, Splash Brothers Curry and Thompson—who are averaging an NBA-high 52.1 ppg combined—did what they do best as the Warriors won their 51st straight game at Home.

On the Injury front, Warriors C Andrew Bogut (Toe) was listed as Probable on Wednesday and the big Australian played and started but was 0-for-1 from the Field for 0 points at Halftime. So your pet Turtle was as productive as Bogut and he (the Turtle) never even got to touch the rock. (Bogut ended the night with 4 points.) SF Kevin Looney (Hip) was listed as Probable and didn’t play (as per usual), SF Andre Iguodala (Ankle) is out until early April while C Festus Ezeli (Knee) is Out Indefinitely, so this wonderful Warriors (115.3 AF-104.2 AA) team that we all foam at the mouth about about dies have some Center problems and you can see why Golden State (17/20 to win NBA Championship, Sportingbet) went out and signed 33-year-old Brazilian Free Agent Anderson Varejão. And All-Star PF Draymond Green and James Michael-McAdoo will be important underneath as the Centers heal. The special “Will the Warriors Break the Bulls Season Wins Total Record?” Prop over at the SuperBook saw the ‘Yes’ priced at -175 and the “No” at +155 earlier this week.


Trends, Recent Relevant Series Information and Picks
This could be a future Round 1 Playoff matchup in the Western Conference with the Warriors likely landing the No. 1 seed and the Mavericks potentially finishing in 8th place, but one team’s going to have to earn it and it ain’t the team from the aptly-named Golden State who shines the Larry O’Brien Trophy every night. In the L10 meetings in this series, the Warriors are a sparkling 8-2 ATS (9-1 SU), so the worm has officially turned and like the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets, the Mavericks are one of those teams in the Western Conference which needs to start to think about rebuilding. In these L10 games—the Total is 5-5—Golden State has scored 130, 127, 114, 123, 104, 128, 105, 122, 108 and 95 points, so expect 30+ point quarters in this series (from GSW) and with this one being at Home with an NBA record in sight, expect the shots will flow freely and the hosts should have between 65-70 points by Halftime.

The Department of Trends and Insignificant Statistics reports that the Over is 9-3 ATS in the Mavericks L12 vs. the Western Conference, the Over is 13-6 ATS in Dallas’s L19 overall while the Under is 8-3 in the Mavericks L11 vs. the Pacific Division and a strong 51-25-1 in the L77 Golden State games against the Southwest Division. So, a mixed bag with the Totals Trends. Golden State is a shiny 11-3 ATS in its L14 against the Southwest Division (78.6%) and probably the biggest and most relevant Trend is that the Warriors are 39-17-1 ATS in the L57 meetings with the Mavericks (69.6%), meaning that they have been winning their backers the money over the last decade. And with the Warriors still able to play better basketball than then they have been, this may resemble a scrimmage at times in an ABA-like bombs away game.

Dallas will want to slow the pace, but Butterflies want the Wind to calm down too and neither can do much about either. Golden State won the first meeting here (Jan. 27) by a 127-107 scoreline and that should be about the same this time around as despite the need to get Wins in order to qualify for the NBA Playoffs, the doubt and apathy are too strong with Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks team and the Warriors often resemble a computer playing Hoops.

Final Score Prediction: Warriors 127 Mavericks 106

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NBA Pick: Warriors -14 & Over 223.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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