NBA Picks: Take Rising Nets +6.5 & 'Over' 205.5 vs. Kings

Darin Zank

Friday, November 13, 2015 6:33 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 13, 2015 6:33 PM GMT

The Nets and Kings have combined for just three victories so far this NBA season, and neither is too hot against the NBA odds, either. But we managed to find a lean for Friday night's game.

Betting Odds
Most of Friday's NBA odds market opened Sacramento at right around -6 over Brooklyn, with an OVER/UNDER of 205. In the early action many shops then bumped the Kings to -6.5, and the total to 206.

Anyone thinking the Nets might win this game outright could get +245 on the NBA moneyline at 5Dimes.

***Click Betting Props For Nets vs. Kings Here***

The Situation
Brooklyn (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS) just picked up its first victory of the season Wednesday, upsetting the Rockets in Houston 106-98. The Nets trailed by 11 late in the third quarter, but rallied and won the fourth quarter 27-15.

On the night Brooklyn only shot 43 percent from the field, but hit eight of 17 shots from 3-point land, 14 of 17 free-throws and grabbed 20 offensive rebounds, resulting in a bunch of second-chance points.

Just prior to that the Nets lost at Milwaukee 94-86, while just before that they lost at home to the Lakers 104-98, becoming LA's only victim so far this season.

Sacramento (2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS), meanwhile, just snapped a six-game losing streak with a 101-92 win over Detroit Wednesday night. The Kings led by 13 points after one quarter and by 19 early in the fourth, allowed the Pistons to get within five with about four minutes to go, but held on for their first victory since beating the Lakers two weeks ago.

Sacramento shot a neat 50 percent from the floor Wednesday, hit nine of 16 shots from long range and held Detroit to just 38 percent shooting.

 

Nets-Kings Recent History
Brooklyn has beaten Sacramento three times in a row, and six out of the last seven meetings, after sweeping two games last season by scores of 107-99 and 103-100. The Nets covered that first meeting as one-point favorites, then won the second meeting outright as five-point dogs on the road. But the Kings actually outshot Brooklyn in those two games combined by a 48-46 percent margin.

Also, those games played OVER totals of 204 and 197.

 

Totals Trends
Brooklyn is 6-2 on the UNDERS this season, as Nets games have averaged 195 points.

Sacramento is 5-4 on the OVERS, as Kings games have averaged 211 points.

 

Injury Update
Sacramento G Darren Collison (16 PPG) is out of action with a bad hamstring. The Kings are 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS without him so far, averaging -5 PPG with him, -6 PPG without.

 

Final Analysis
These two teams are in the same boat, trying to overcome lousy starts to this season. Ultimately, almost all our NBA handicapping factors balance out for this match-up, so our guess is the spread on this game is inflated by at least a bucket, maybe two, toward the home team. And Sacramento ranks right near the bottom in the league in FT shooting, and those free-throws might come in very handy near the end of what should be a close game. We'll take Brooklyn here, plus the points. Also, neither of these teams is playing great defense, allowing opponents to shoot 47 and 48 percent from the floor, so we're thinking OVER as our NBA pick.

NBA Picks: Nets +6.5 & Over 205.5 at Bookmaker

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