NBA Picks: Take 'Over' In Fast-Paced Warriors vs. Cavaliers Matchup

Charles Stark

Monday, January 18, 2016 1:09 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 18, 2016 1:09 PM UTC

The last time the Cavs met the Warriors, the game ended with a very low 89-83 final. Despite the low score, we have a high total for tonight. Should we take it for our NBA picks?

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Free NBA Pick: Over 206½
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


NBA Odds Overview
NBA odds board have the total for this game at 208 like at Pinnacle -105. This total seems really way too high at first glance when we consider their first matchup, but this game has all the makings of what should be an up-and-down high tempo affair. For my NBA pick, I will back over the total because I expect both teams to have their "A" games on offensively.


Golden State Warriors
Golden State is averaging 113.9 points per game while shooting 48.4% from the field, and allowing 102.7 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field. The last three times we've gone against Golden State we have won getting points when they played Cleveland, Miami, and just the other day in Detroit. However, I believe today the value is on over the total where the Warriors are 24-17 on the year and 15-7 away against the spread. Offensively it is hard for me to write about them because I've done so much in the last few weeks, and I don't have a lot of new information to add so I will keep it simple. Although they did struggle in Detroit offensively they're the best team in the league and rank first in shooting efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, three point percentage, fast-break points, and three pointers made per game. The only place they rank not in the top five is in points in the paint where they are still decent averaging 44 points per game. Defensively is why I really like for this game to go over as far as Golden State is concerned on this side of the ball. The Warriors do have some nice defensive statistics ranking first in opponent three point percentage, and second in overall opponent shooting percentage. However, and they do allow teams to run with them as they rank second to last in the league allowing opponents 90.3 field-goal attempts per game. That will be an issue tonight against a very efficient Cleveland team playing at home with a healthy Kyrie Irving.


Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is averaging 101.4 points per game while averaging 44.9% from the field and allowing 95.1 points per game on 43.9% shooting from the field. Unlike the Warriors, they're only 17-21 on the over under total so far this season, but they are 9-7 at home on their over's against the spread. Offensively, they do things a little bit different than Golden State controlling tempo just a bit more, yet they are still very efficient, especially at home. The Cavaliers rank in the top 10 in most offensive categories like three point shooting percentage, two point shooting percentage, effective field-goal percentage, and shooting efficiency. With Irving back in the lineup, they seem to have all the pistons firing and close to a lock to win the Eastern conference. On the defensive side, and I have mentioned this before, they are much better this season ranking second in opponent points per game, and in the top 10 in most offensive categories. Tonight, I think they will have their hands full with the best offense in the league in Golden State in a bounce back spot after their bad game against Detroit. I am predicting that Cleveland will get out and run with them just a little bit more than usual, and I expect an up tempo game from the first tip.

This total really jumps out at you when you look at these teams defensively and simply consider their final score in their last matchup. This number is set for reason though, and for one of your NBA picks, I recommend backing the over in what should be a fantastic contest between two of the best teams in the league. Expect both teams to really push the pace tonight and to knock down a lot of shots.

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