NBA Picks: Take Dominating Spurs To Cover ATS Against Rockets

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, January 27, 2016 4:02 PM GMT

The Houston Rockets visit the San Antonio Spurs for their divisional series this season. The teams split the first two meetings, check inside our free NBA pick for this game. 

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NBA Pick: Spurs -10
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs 8:05PM ET
Houston won (88-84) on their home court Christmas Day, but the Spurs evened the series 8 days later with a victory on this court, as -11 (121-103). I look for a repeat of that result after the Spurs lost by an embarrassing 30 points (120-90) to Golden St. on Monday night.  

 

Betting Analysis
The Rockets enter tonight on a 3-game winning streak, following a (112-111) win at New Orleans Monday night. That followed a (115-104) victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. But at 25-22 SU for the season, Houston is still clearly underachieving. For the season, they are just 3-7 ATS on the road and below .500 as traveler at 10-11 SU. Regardless of site, defense has been a problem for Houston, as they are allowing 105 PPG. The Rockets have been winning without big man, Howard, in the lineup, who had a double/double in each of the previous two games against the Spurs. He is questionable for tonight’s game, after sitting out the 3 wins due to a sprained left ankle. In his stead, Trevor Ariza has stepped up, shooting 61% from the field (including 19 of 31 from behind the arc) while averaging 26 PPG. Compare those numbers to 40% and 11 PPG in the first 43 games. James Harden has also stepped up, averaging 30 PPG in the previous 4 contests. Since the loss to San Antonio in early December, the Rockets have won 9/12. Tonight, however, Houston is in the wrong place at the wrong time. 

In Monday’s loss to Golden St., Tim Duncan (right knee soreness) sat out. He is again expected to miss tonight’s contest. But, the Spurs were 7-0 SU without Duncan, before facing Golden St. Spurs’ HC Popovich referred to it as “men among boys.”  As expected, a veteran team like the Spurs is not dwelling on the fact that Golden St. broke their 13-game winning streak (which began the game after the loss to Houston on Christmas Day).  Rather, expect a huge bounce back effort from veteran pros, Ginobili and Parker and huge step-up games by Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, who scored just 5 points in the loss to the Warriors. The fact is that the Spurs have proven to be the most resilient team in the NBA this season at 6-0 ATS following a defeat.  San Antonio also has an average margin of victory of 14 PPG this season (best in the league) and is 27-10 ATS when laying more than 6 points in any NBA contest this season.

Look for the Spurs to start a new winning streak in dominant fashion tonight. I invite you to put the NBA odds in your favor and join me in my NBA pick on the San Antonio Spurs.