Jazz vs. Warriors
Utah is in line to get a top five draft pick this year if all things go well, but do you really think the NBA will let the Jazz get the #1 pick? I doubt it, but tonight they have a chance to improve their draft stock even more with a loss to the Warriors, a team that really needs a win.
The NBA Odds have the Jazz as +12 underdogs here on the road tonight, with a total of 194 ½. Even though it looks almost like a lock that the Warriors will get the win tonight, I think the spread actually holds more value. With all of the injuries for the Warriors, it looks like the over could be the play.
Andrew Bogut and David Lee both sat out the Warriors demolition of the Kings on Friday, and with another easy game where they’re huge favorites tonight, it would not surprise me one bit to see them sit again. There has been no word on their status, but with Bogut especially, his absence could lead to another absence; the Warriors’ defense.
That could lead to this total being a great over bet tonight, and that’s where I’m going with my NBA Picks. Even though the last four times these two teams have played, the total has gone under, this late in the season, 194 ½ is too low for these two teams.
The over has cashed in four of Utah’s last six games, and four of their last five games overall. In their last ten games, the Jazz are giving up just over 104 points per game, and if the Warriors can get past that landmark, the over is very valuable tonight.
My Pick: OVER 194 ½
Thunder vs. Suns
Phoenix is tied in the standings with the Grizzlies, and with Memphis heading into San Antonio tonight, you have to think the Suns could move into the playoffs with a win and a Memphis loss. However that’s easier said than done, as they welcome in the Thunder tonight. The NBA Odds have the Suns as +2 ½ home underdogs here, with a total of 212 ½.
Phoenix should put up a solid fight tonight, especially on defense where they have been pretty good recently. However with the Thunder’s offense going nuts recently, I think another play on the over could be the most valuable prop for this game.
The over has cashed in ten of the last 13 times these two teams have played one another, including their only two meetings this season, which both went over the total. Phoenix is 21-16-2 cashing the over at home this season, and as home underdogs, they are 7-6 cashing the over. Phoenix is also 25-19 cashing the over against the West.
With Russell Westbrook back for the Thunder tonight, the Suns will have a hard time containing him and Kevin Durant at the same time. While the Suns have some capable defenders for both of those guys, Phoenix simply doesn’t have the depth to keep up tonight, even with a playoff spot on the line.
My Pick: OVER 212 ½