Only four game line the NBA schedule today, and with one afternoon game, we have to find value in as many cracks as we can find. I have found two games that appear to have great value today, so let’s start with the matinee game, one of the first of the season.
Right now, the Spurs come in as -4 ½ road favorites in this game with a total of 196 ½. After opening at -5 ½ and 198 ½, the spread and total have dropped a few points, and I am following the line movement. I think there is great value in the total today, and 196 ½ is still too much for these two teams.
I’m seeing this game finishing in the low to mid 90s, and the under being the play. Even if this total drops some between now and Sunday, I still think a total in the mid to upper 190s is a great value on the under. The Spurs have cashed the under in four of their six games so far this season, and defensively they have only allowed 93 points per game this season, which early in the season ranks them 3rd in the NBA.
The same can be said about New York’s defense so far. Admittedly it was with Tyson Chandler clogging up the middle, but the Knicks are only giving up around 93-94 points per game. Those numbers are going to take a hit without Chandler for the next month or two, but I don’t expect the Knicks to start giving up 100 points per game here, especially in this afternoon game.
In the first three Sundays of the NBA season last year, the under went 5-0 on the Sunday afternoon games, and I see a similar trend establishing this year. The scores of those games almost always had a team in the 80s or lower. The Knicks are 47-38-1 cashing the under at home since 2011. Look for Carmelo to take his turn guarding Duncan every once in a while, and look for a lower scoring game that’s played in the half court.
Free Picks: UNDER 196
Wizards vs. Thunder
One of the worst defenses in the NBA heads out west to play one of the better offenses, and the NBA Odds for this game favor the Thunder at -10, with a total of 203 ½. Unlike the matinee game above, this game is only an early evening game, and with the Wizards coming in, I can’t see a way the Thunder don’t get at least 105 or more points in this game.
The Wizards are giving up 107 points per game so far this season, and even though the Wizards played solid defense towards the end of last season, they have looked off to start this year. Bringing in Marcin Gortat was an offensive move, and even though they knew their defense would take a hit, I don’t think the Wizards thought it would be by this much early in the year.
Washington is also playing more of an up-tempo offense this season, which has really helped their scoring, and if this continues, the Wizards are going to have great over value until the sportsbooks adjust. Washington is averaging 105 points per game to start this season, and surprisingly, the Thunder are giving up close to 100 points per game.
Washington is 4-1 cashing the over so far this season, and the over has cashed in two of the last three, five of the last seven meetings between these two teams overall, and the over has cashed in two of the last three meetings between these two teams in Oklahoma City. 203 ½ is too much value to pass up for our NBA picks.
My Pick: OVER 203 ½