NBA Picks: Sunday NBA Locks

Steven Suarez

Sunday, January 6, 2013 2:58 PM UTC

Sunday, Jan. 6, 2013 2:58 PM UTC

Where do our cappers believe that the best NBA betting value is hidden on today's schedule? Find out which plays we believe you should add to your NBA picks tonight, as we look to continue our sucessful streak

With much of the attention on the NFL playoffs, maybe we can take advantage of some weak spots in the NBA odds today. Suarez is on a nice run at the moment – can he keep it going with a couple more winners?

Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat 

One thing we've learned: you don't want to mess with the Heat when they're trying to rebound after a tough loss. 

Miami has had a little time to think about Friday's seven-point home setback to Chicago, which was their third defeat in five games. The Heat have also failed to cover the spread in any of those five matchups.

As you can see, it's been a difficult 10 days for Erik Spoelstra's team, but we do think they'll scoot past the Wizards with no trouble tonight. 

For one, in spite of losing to the Bulls their last time out, the Heat have been great inside of American Airlines Arena. They're 15-3 SU and 10-8 ATS on the year and have covered in six of their previous eight home contests.

They welcome a Washington team that's still won only one game on the road this season. When the Wizards were in South Beach last month, Miami won 102-72 by shooting 50.6 percent overall and holding Washington to 37.5 percent from the floor. 

In our estimation, there's just no way the Wizards can keep up on the offensive end. Sure the Heat have struggled defensively, but that's because they've been focusing on a small-ball lineup with LeBron at the four, and that's leaving them vulnerable in the post against teams with formidable size. This Miami squad can still score with the best of them though, ranking #3 in efficiency at 109.2 points per 100 possessions.

Meanwhile, the Wizards are in the midst of one of the worst offensive seasons in history. They're averaging 92.9 points per 100 possessions, putting them dead last in the NBA by a large margin. For our NBA picks tonight, we see Miami running away in this one.

Pick: Miami Heat -13.5 at Heritage


Charlotte Bobcats vs. Detroit Pistons

We realize the Pistons are hot right now, but we still find it hard to believe they deserve to be favored by almost double digits over anyone. 

The Bobcats are obviously struggling majorly since a shocking 7-5 start to the season, yet they've at least managed to battle tough over their last three games. They lost to New Orleans and Cleveland by three and two respectively, but the clear highlight came in between those defeats.

Charlotte went into the Windy City and beat Chicago 91-81, crushing the NBA betting lines (+11.5) in the process.  

Kemba Walker was excellent, contributing in practically every single statistical category. He finished with 18 points, eight rebounds, six assists, four steals and two blocks. The Bobcats were +12 when he was on the court. Fellow guard Gerald Henderson was also highly effective, ending up with 16 points on 6-of-11 shooting.

While Charlotte will be out-matched in the post tonight, we think that guard play, which includes the likes of Walker, Henderson, Ramon Sessions and Ben Gordon, will make up for it. All four guys can get hot at any given moment. 

Detroit has improved immensely on the defensive end, but they're still struggling to get going offensively. They average only 94.9 points per contest and even Charlotte (95.7 PPG) has done better in that respect. 

The Pistons are just 8-10 ATS at home this season (3-7 ATS over last 10) and we don't believe, at least at this juncture, that they are worthy of holding nine-point chalk. We'll grab the young Bobcats here.

Pick: Charlotte Bobcats +9 at 5Dimes

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