NBA Picks: At Such Long Odds we Bet the Knicks +9.5 vs. Cavaliers

Darin Zank

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 1:50 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015 1:50 PM GMT

Cleveland took two of three from New York last season, on its way to a conference title, but the Knicks went 2-1 in those meetings ATS. Can New York keep Wednesday night's meeting close?

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Knicks-Cavaliers Betting Odds
Most of Wednesday's NBA odds market opened this game with Cleveland favored by 10 points or so, with a total of right around 201; both those figures were holding steady in the early betting.

Those willing to take a chance could get a price of +420 on New York on the NBA moneyline at 5Dimes.

 

Knicks-Cavs: The Situation
After going a dismal 17-65 last season, which included just seven wins on the road, New York went off this season with a betting wins OVER/UNDER of 29. But the Knicks started 2-1 this year, with wins at Milwaukee and at Washington. Last time out, Monday night, New York lost at home to San Antonio 94-84, missing on the cover as a seven-point home dog.

The Knicks trailed by a dozen at the half, pulled to within four points with 10 minutes to go, but couldn't maintain the surge, and faded. On the night New York shot just 36 percent from the field, while allowing the Spurs to shoot 49 percent.

Last Saturday the Knicks shot 48 percent in beating the Wizards 117-110, cashing in as +250 dogs on the NBA moneyline.

Cleveland, meanwhile, is off to a 3-1 start in defense of its Eastern Conference championship of last season. The Cavs opened this season with a 97-95 loss at Chicago, but actually covered that night as four-point road dogs. Cleveland then won at Memphis 106-76, taking that game as a five-point dog, then beat Miami 102-92, covering as a five-point favorite.

Last time out, Monday night, the Cavs won at Philly 107-100 but couldn't cover at -12. Cleveland actually trailed the Sixers by 15 points in the second quarter, closed that to five points by halftime, then scored the first nine points of the second half to take the lead for good. The Cavs later led by 21, but let Philly go on a late 17-4 run, pissing away the cover.

On the night Cleveland shot 52 percent from the floor.

 

Knicks-Cavs Recent History
Cleveland took two of three games from New York last season, but the Knicks went 2-1 ATS. New York upset the Cavs 95-90 as a 13-point dog on the road, then lost at home 90-87, covering as a seven-point home dog. Cleveland won the final meeting 101-83, covering at -16.

The Cavs outshot the Knicks in those three games combined 47 percent to 43 percent.

Also, the UNDERS went 3-0 in this series last season, as the games averaged just 185 total points.

 

Knicks-Cavs By the Numbers
New York is shooting just 42 percent from the floor this season, 33 percent from 3-point range but 83 percent from the free-throw line. The Knicks are also allowing opponents to shoot 44 percent, outrebounding foes by three per game and averaging a 21/15 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Cleveland is shooting 46 percent from the field, 34 percent from the long range and 72 percent from the line. The Cavs are also holding foes to 41 percent shooting, outboarding them by eight per game and averaging 27/14 A/TO ratio.

 

Injury Update
New York rookie F Kristaps Porzingis, who scored 13 points and grabbed 14 boards against the Spurs Monday night, hurt his neck in a tumble, and left that game, but reports indicate he'll play tonight.

Meanwhile, Cleveland is playing without G Kyrie Irving, who's on the rack with a knee injury.

 

Knicks-Cavs Free NBA Picks
Yeah, Cleveland will probably win this game, but it might not shoot 52 percent from the floor, like it did the other night. Meanwhile, New York will probably shoot a little better than the 36 percent it shot last time out. Also, the Knicks gave the Cavs two good games last season. Take New York here, plus the points with your NBA Pick. Also, these teams played three UNDERS last season, and we buy that trend.

NBA Picks: Knicks +9.5 (-105) at Heritage & UNDER 201.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

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