NBA Picks: Spurs vs. Warriors Game 4

Jeff Grant

Sunday, May 12, 2013 12:05 PM GMT

Sunday, May. 12, 2013 12:05 PM GMT

Point guards Stephen Curry and Tony Parker are both battling injuries, as the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs meet up Sunday afternoon.


Let’s take a closer look at the NBA odds for Game 4 of this Western Conference semifinal series at Oracle Arena, with the opening tip scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Back in the driver’s seat

San Antonio regained control of home-court advantage in this best-of-seven series with a 102-92 victory over Golden State as two-point road underdogs in Game 3 Friday night, while going UNDER the total for a second consecutive contest.

The Spurs are 10-3 straight up (SU) and 8-5 against the spread (ATS) when leading in a playoff series the last two-plus seasons, with the UNDER going 8-5 in that situation.

Dangerous home underdogs

Golden State has compiled a 109-125 all-time record in the postseason as a franchise, including a 72-41 mark at home, which can’t be ignored when making your NBA playoff picks Sunday.

The Warriors have won and covered the number in both games when trailing in a playoff series this season.

Curry and Parker

Warriors point guard Stephen Curry is listed as a game-time decision with a left ankle injury—an area of the body that has consistently given the sharp shooter trouble since he arrived in the league.

The short turnaround between games is definitely a concern in getting him back on the floor, as a 6 or 7:30 p.m. start time would have given him some extra hours of much-needed treatment.

Tony Parker scored a game-high 32 points on 13 of 23 shooting last time out, but the Spurs floor leader is listed as probable with a bruised calf.  His jump shot will likely be affected due to his inability to elevate over a defender with the injury.

San Antonio is 12-2 in 14 playoff games when Parker finishes with 30 or more points, but that number will be difficult to reach in Game 4.

Favoritism 

NBA handicappers will find that the Warriors opened up as 1.5-point home favorites in the opening odds, but that number as moved three points in the other direction—mainly due to Curry’s injury.

The favorite is 18-7-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings in this series, while the UNDER is on a 5-2-1 run.

How did Joe Freda pick both games last night?

[gameodds]5/228741/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

It’s very hard to get involved in wagering on this game until further news is received on the injury front, especially with the line movements already in place if Curry is unable to go.

San Antonio’s bench has always been seen as a strength, but sixth man Manu Ginobili is struggling through seven games of the postseason, averaging 12.1 points on 38.4 percent shooting.

I recommend playing the UNDER in the first half for NBA picks in this contest, as both teams will likely struggle to find any offensive rhythm in the early going.

NBA Pick: First Half Under 100 at BET 365 

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