NBA Picks: Spurs vs. Warriors Game 3

Thursday, May 9, 2013 3:09 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 9, 2013 3:09 PM UTC

The Golden State Warriors have outplayed the San Antonio Spurs through two games thus far, but that doesn’t mean they should tip off as home favorites Friday night.
<p style="text-align:center;"></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em;"><br />Let’s take a closer look at the </span><a href="/betting-odds/nba-basketball/" title="Live NBA Odds &amp; Betting Lines" target="_blank" style="font-size:1em;">NBA odds</a><span style="font-size:1em;"> for Game 3 of this Western Conference semifinal series at Oracle Arena, with the opening tip scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.</span><span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p style="text-align:center;"><em><span style="font-size:1em;">Be sure to check out my <a href="/nba-basketball/free-picks/nba-picks-heat-vs-bulls-game-3-a-31231/" title="NBA Picks: Heat vs. Bulls Game 3" target="_blank">NBA Picks: Heat vs. Bulls Game 3</a>.</span></em></p> <p><b>Fortunate</b><span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p><img id="ctl00_head_ArticleAdministrator_picturePreview_imgSelectedPicture" alt="Image preview" class="imgSelectedPicture article-image" src="/picks-pictures/sa%20spurs.jpg" style="font-size:1em;" />San Antonio is fortunate this best-of-seven series is tied at 1-1, as it suffered a 100-91 setback to Golden State as seven-point home favorites Wednesday—just two days after picking up an improbable 129-127 double overtime win in Game 1.<span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p>The Spurs are 5-1 straight up (SU) and 3-3 against the spread (ATS) in the second round of the playoffs the last two-plus seasons, with no clear edge found in the betting total (3-3 Over/Under).<span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p><b>Confidence</b><span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p>Golden State is playing with tremendous confidence under second-year head coach Mark Jackson, as the club moved past becoming the first team to blow a 16-point lead with 4.5 minutes remaining in a playoff game, with the offense knocking down 22 3-pointers in San Antonio.<span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p>The Warriors still possess a losing 23-26 SU record against wining teams since the start of the regular season, with the OVER going 30-18-1 in that situation.<span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p><b>Getting it done on the road</b><span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p><a target="_blank" title="Chat with fellow bettors in our NBA Handicapping forum" href="">NBA handicappers</a> shouldn’t look past the Spurs when looking over the betting lines, as they compiled a 23-18 record on the road during the regular season—ranking fifth in the league in averaging 101.4 points per game.<span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p>San Antonio enjoyed great success away from the AT&amp;T Center due to shooting 46.5 percent from the field, while trailing only one team in dishing out 23.8 assists.<span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p><b>Perfection</b><span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p>Golden State has covered the number in all eight of its playoff games to this point, which fits nicely with the fact that the favorite is 18-6-2 ATS in the last 26 meetings in this series.<span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p>There’s just one problem—San Antonio has been laying the points a majority of the time in this rivalry since the arrival of forward Tim Duncan.</p> <p>[gameodds]5/228705/43/us[/gameodds]</p> <p><b>Prediction</b><span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p>I’m going to recommend that readers back the Spurs as one of their <a href="/nba-basketball/" title="NBA Picks &amp; Betting Predictions" target="_blank">NBA picks</a> Friday, as I established the Warriors as 1.5-point home favorites, which provides slight value on the road underdog.<span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p>San Antonio is also 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS when revenging a home loss the last two-plus seasons.<span style="font-size:1em;"> </span></p> <p><strong>NBA Pick:</strong>  San Antonio Spurs +2 at Pinnacle</p>
comment here