Tony Parker owns Blazers
The matchup between Tony Parker and Damian Lillard has been completely one-sided, and after I predicted the Blazers would win this series, they are on the verge of being swept. As you can imagine, the NBA Odds have the Spurs as road favorites in Game 4 at -2 ½, with a total of 211.
Parker’s dominance can probably stem back to all the rest he received last month, and apparently it’s showing here in the second round. The Spurs are probably very motivated to get this series over with quickly, because after playing seven games in the first round, they are going to need some rest before facing off against either Oklahoma City or Los Angeles.
So where some teams might let up in a Game 4 scenario on the road, the Spurs will still have their foot firmly planted on the accelerator in Game 4. They need rest more than any other team left in the playoffs if they want to win a title, and I’m sure like the Blazers will be doing, the Spurs are going to pull out all of the stops to shorten this series as much as possible.
The Sharp Pick
The two things that have given the Blazers the most trouble is the Spurs’ defense, and their ability to get offense from a number of different areas. On defense, the Spurs are looking like the 2007 Spurs again on defense, and if they keep this up, they are going to be tough to beat. The Spurs aren’t great individually on defense, but as a team when they are working together, they are tough to score on. Getting rest is also the only thing that will keep this defense going, so expect an intense Game 4.
However even though it might be very intense, I think the over is still the play. The over has cashed in all three games of this series, and with the Spurs’ balance on offense, the Blazers’ defense is simply no match.
During the playoffs, the Blazers are now giving up over 113 points per game, and over 115 points per game in this series alone. They are not going to beat the Spurs in a shoot out, but it appears they have no other option. They have zero answer for Parker right now, and with about six or seven other Spurs to worry about along with him on offense, it’s too much for this inexperienced Blazers defense.
Even at 211, the total looks ripe for an over bet. The Spurs’ defense has been good, but the Blazers should still be able to get at or around 100 points here at home. The over has now cashed in 10 of the Blazers’ last 12 games dating back to the regular season, and for the Spurs, the over has now cashed in six straight games this postseason. Take the over at 211.
My Pick: OVER 211