NBA Picks: Spurs vs. Rockets

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, March 24, 2013 4:46 PM GMT

Sunday, Mar. 24, 2013 4:46 PM GMT

With the Spurs getting back Tony Parker, should we look at this spread as a gift from the sportsbooks, or a big trap? It’s hard to tell the difference sometimes.

NBA Picks: Spurs vs. Rockets

One of the many battles of Texas is set to take place tonight, as the Spurs head into Houston to play the Rockets. Both teams had the night off last night, and the Spurs come in as a small -1 road betting odds favorite in this game, with an over/under of 212 ½. 

Gullible as a goat

The books have laid the trap perfectly, and already 60% of bets coming in on the spread for this game have come to the Spurs. However, I think the spread is no contest tonight and is unbeatable. The Spurs have been overvalued as of late, going 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Plus, San Antonio is only 2-6 ATS in their last six road games. The Spurs have also only won two of their last six trips to Houston SU (one this season).

I’m not saying I think the Rockets are the play here, even though they don’t look bad. My point is this spread is too close and one or two plays can decide the difference. I don’t think that kind of uncertainty, which is why I’m siding with a much more reasonably priced total at 212 ½.

Rockets home prowess

Houston is a machine at scoring the ball at home. I’ve been through it many times with this team. They have the fastest pace of play of any team in the NBA by a mile this season, and they score the ball at over 110 points per game at home. That’s why I have no idea why this total is as low as it is. I was expecting somewhere closer to 220.

The Spurs have been playing better defense recently, but on the road I think the Spurs will just be focused on keeping up with the Rockets offensive output tonight. The last two times these two played one another, the totals flew over and they were both priced very similarly to what they are tonight.

Hell, maybe this is a trap too and this game will end up being less than 200 points, however I don’t think so. The Spurs having Parker back will only help their offense, and with this game projected to be so close, a higher score is that much more likely. In close games like this, teams will be trading bucket for bucket and not getting too many stops.

The Sharp Pick

The over has cashed between these two in five of their last six meetings from Houston, and even though the under has been cashing more for Houston at home recently, I’m still going over. I think the Rockets are going to drop at least 115 points tonight at home, which would almost definitely call for an over tonight.

Both of these teams are top three in the NBA in shooting the three pointers, and while the books have adjusted for this in their totals in the past, it doesn’t seem like they are doing it here. Take the over to the bank for your NBA Picks here.

My Pick: OVER 212 ½ at bet365

[gameodds]5/222495/169-43-19-999996/us[/gameodds]

Get my pick on the Jazz vs. Mavs here!

 

 

comment here