Vincanity not enough
Even though Vince Carter drove a DeLorean to the game in San Antonio on Wednesday, it wasn’t enough to top the Spurs. Now needing to win two in a row to advance, the Mavs come in as +3 NBA Odds underdogs at home, with a total of 198 ½. We cashed the over on Wednesday with these two teams, and the total has only increased a half point from that game. Even though I do expect the Mavs to come out desperate, I don’t think that means they’ll suddenly become a defensive juggernaut.
However the spread is much to volatile for my liking, but instead, the total of 198 ½ looks like a good opportunity once again on Friday. After Game 5, three of the last four meetings between these two have gone over the total this series, and with their season on the line, I think the Mavs’ will show up big on offense at home.
On the other side, Tony Parker looks fully recovered from his mild ankle sprain, and along with the fantastic contributions from Tiago Splitter and Manu Ginobli, the Spurs were in control most of Game 5. Going on the road will be tough, but I believe the constant of their offense will travel with them.
The Sharp Pick
The Spurs cash the over at 57% during the regular postseason when playing on one day’s rest, and while that may not mean much in the playoffs, it does attest to the fact that the playoff schedule gives the Spurs a big advantage on other teams. Even though they are aging, the rest allotted to them in the playoffs is huge for their star players.
During the regular and postseason, the Spurs have cashed the over on the road at 24-19, and 2-0 this postseason. At home the Mavs are even better going 25-18 cashing the over so far this year at home.
While the Mavs will pull out all the stops here to try and force a Game 7, I think the safest and most reasonable play for this game is to double down and go with the over. If you include the two games from this series, along with seven other instances from the regular season, the Mavs are 8-1 cashing the over when playing as home underdogs.
I could easily see another high scoring game like in Game 5 here in Dallas, and with the total not going up any from the previous game, I feel it only right to try for the over once again. Parker will still be a matchup nightmare for the Mavs, and if he is getting to where he wants on the floor, it means either he is killing you, or everyone else on the Spurs is.
Much like Carter has done a few times this series, I also expect one member of the Mavs not named Dirk or Monta to step up and have a big game here.
My Pick: OVER 198 ½