NBA Picks: Spurs vs. Lakers Game 4

Jeff Grant

Sunday, April 28, 2013 12:58 PM GMT

Sunday, Apr. 28, 2013 12:58 PM GMT

The Los Angeles Lakers have never won a game in the situation they’ll be in Sunday, which likely means that the San Antonio Spurs will finish off a four-game sweep and advance to the second round. 

Let’s take a closer look at the NBA betting odds for Game 4 of this Western Conference quarterfinal series at Staples Center, with the opening tip scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

Bring the broom

San Antonio has won and covered the spread in its first three games against Los Angeles in this best-of-seven series, including a 120-89 blowout victory as six-point road favorites Friday night, while going OVER the total for a second consecutive contest.

The Spurs are 23-10 straight up (SU) and 22-10-1 against the spread (ATS) after scoring 105 points or more since the start of the regular season, with the UNDER going 20-13 in that situation.

Rock bottom

Los Angeles’ 31-point loss in Game 3 represented its worst home playoff defeat in franchise history, as the squad was simply unable to compete with one of the best teams in basketball due to numerous injuries.

The Lakers do possess a winning 11-8 SU and 10-9 ATS record when looking to bounce back from a double-digit loss, but they’ve also failed to cover the number in eight of their  last nine games when trailing in a postseason series.

Writing is on the wall

There’s no doubt that the tariff is going to be high to back the Spurs when the betting odds are released for this matchup, considering the Lakers have lost all seven Game 4’s in their history when falling behind 3-0 in a playoff series.

Los Angeles has simply been overmatched all season against top-flight competition—represented in its 19-26 SU and 17-27-1 ATS record when taking on teams with a winning record.

Duncan and Parker

San Antonio has been led on the offensive end by veterans Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, who have combined to average 41.6 points per game in this series, as they snapped a six-game road losing streak in this series when meeting in the postseason.

Head coach Gregg Popovich may try to limit the duo’s minutes Sunday, considering there’s no reason to risk injury in this affair, especially after seeing Oklahoma City lose starting point guard Russell Westbrook earlier this week for the rest of the playoffs.

Check out our picks on the Nuggets vs. the Warriors, here.

[gameodds]5/226800/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Outlook

The Spurs were sent out as seven-point road favorites early Saturday morning, but that number has risen to as high as 9.5 in the market, which is why it’s important to monitor the injury report for the Lakers before making your NBA picks.

I established San Antonio as 8.5-point favorites when shooting an SBR video for this matchup, which signaled a play on the visitor based on the opening number, but now the home underdog may offer some value. 

Tread carefully—Popovich can name the score.

Free Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +9.5 at BET 365

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