NBA Picks: Spurs vs. Knicks Free Picks

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, November 9, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 5:00 AM GMT

Will San Antonio put up more of an offensive showing this afternoon, or will the Knicks start to overcome their early season trials with a big upset?


The Sunday matinee game features the Spurs traveling into the Big Apple to play the Knicks, and the early NBA Odds from BetOnline have the Knicks as +4 ½ home underdogs with a total of 198 ½. 

Afternoon offensive issues

Early last season, these early season afternoon games were a great bet for the under. The first month of the season, it seemed like all of the Sunday afternoon games went under the total. This Sunday the total of 198 ½ seems like way too much for these two teams playing one another at noon eastern time. Instead of betting on this early spread that will likely shift several times before Sunday, let’s take a stab on this early betting total.

The Spurs only put up 76 points this past Friday against the Warriors, and now they travel into New York for yet another tough road game. San Antonio only shot 39% from the floor in that game, and so far this season, the Spurs have not been too consistent on offense.

While the loss of Tyson Chandler is going to hurt the Knicks defensively, I don’t see it affecting them as much as this total is suggesting. Tim Duncan will likely have a field day without Chandler guarding him, but other than that, the Spurs and Knicks matchup well with one another. Some have suggested that the Knicks are going to absolutely collapse without Chandler, but they still have Carmelo Anthony, and he should be able to help guard Duncan some if it came down to it.

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The Sharp Pick

I’m seeing this game finishing in the low to mid 90s, and the under being the play. Even if this total drops some between now and Sunday, I still think a total in the mid to upper 190s is a great value on the under. The Spurs have cashed the under in four of their six games so far this season, and defensively they have only allowed 93 points per game this season, which early in the season ranks them 3rd in the NBA.

The same can be said about New York’s defense so far. Admittedly it was with Chandler clogging up the middle, but the Knicks are only giving up around 93-94 points per game. Those numbers are going to take a hit without Chandler for the next month or two, but I don’t expect the Knicks to start giving up 100 points per game here, especially in this afternoon game.

In the first three Sundays of the NBA season last year, the under went 5-0 on the Sunday afternoon games, and I see a similar trend establishing this year. The scores of those games almost always had a team in the 80s or lowe. The Knicks are 47-38-1 for our NBA picks, cashing the under at home since 2011. Look for Carmelo to take his turn guarding Duncan every once in a while, and look for a lower scoring game that’s played in the half court.

My Pick: ‘Under’ 198 ½ @ Bet365

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