Miami is such a big favorite because they have home court advantage in the series. If this series was played on neutral floor, the odds would be much closer to even. With that being said, it is my philosophy that in the NBA Finals the home team, or higher seeded team does not have as much of an advantage as they did during previous rounds. After the first two games in Miami, three games in a row will be played in San Antonio assuming that she do not sweep the Spurs, which I find highly unlikely.
All the Spurs would have to do is win one game in Miami to put a lot of pressure on Miami to win one of three games on the road. Even though they beat up on Milwaukee and Chicago on the road, going 4-0 ATS and SU against those two teams this postseason, they were 1-2 ATS playing the Pacers on the road, losing their last two attempts their both SU and ATS.
We are still waiting for specific NBA odds on the length of the series, but I think we can safely assume that the Heat will not sweep the series. I also think it's safe to assume that Miami has limited value in the series odds because of how much chalk they have.
On top of being favored by well over -200, Chris Bosh is still playing like crap and that will not improve against one of the best power forward defenders in the league, Tim Duncan. Also even though Dwyane Wade played an above average Game 7 against Indiana, (7-16 shooting) he is still visibly plagued by injury. This Miami team is by far the weakest of all three years they've been together in the NBA Finals, and this might just be their toughest opponent to date.On the flipside of things 2/1 seems like pretty good money for the San Antonio Spurs to win series, however they are playing the Miami Heat, and beating them is easier said than done. While I do think they hold value in this spot, I'm going to remain reluctant to recommend taking San Antonio to win the series at +200. I think we’re going to get much better odds once the specific series prices come out, where we can bet on either team to win in between four and seven games for the series (My three early leans on that one are Heat in 7, or Spurs in 6 or 7). That is where we will find more sports betting value with the Spurs as well as the Heat, not in these -235 and +200 NBA Odds.