It’s win or stay home for the Miami Heat tonight, as the Spurs have a commanding 3-2 series lead, and they come in tonight as +7 underdogs according to the NBA Odds. San Antonio won Game 5 at home in stellar fashion, so will this series continue the trend of no wins in back to back games, or will the Spurs come out and close this series on the road, like they have done so many times before?
Spurs road clinchers
The Spurs are 14-2 SU all time in closeout games since the original big three were put together, and even in these playoffs they have been fantastic. They are 3-0 SU in closeout games so far in these playoffs, and all three of those wins came on the road.
Obviously this is the Miami Heat they have to try and win two games in a row against, but if any team has shown the ability to out-smart and out-execute the Heat, it’s the Spurs. The Heat have not been that great ATS recently, and even though they are going home and their backs are against the wall, I doubt we see another blowout here tonight.
I think the complacency with the Heat is going to be too much, and even if they win the game tonight, there will be no blowouts, and that’s why I’m taking the points with the Spurs this evening. After four straight blowout games in this series, this one should go down to the wire.
Heat ATS struggles
Miami is 5-8 ATS in their last 13-playoff games this postseason, and they are only 3-4 ATS in their last seven home playoff games. With Manu Ginobli likely starting again, the Heat will have no room for error tonight. They will have to play nearly flawless basketball to get the cover here, and I don’t think they can play flawless ball against the Spurs.
The Heat have shown time and again this series that they are not a dynasty caliber team, because a dynasty would have not lost Game 1 at home, and a dynasty would not have been blown out so much in these playoffs in general. The Heat can not rely on their stars alone tonight.
The Heat are a team of stars and nothing else, and that is not going to work against a true team like the Spurs. Lebron James will likely come out and play with a vengeance, but his play alone, and even a great game by Dywane Wade will not be enough to get the cover. Stop listening to ESPN, and start handicapping with your brain. The Heat may have the best two players in the series, but the Spurs have the better all around team, and last time I checked, basketball is played with 5-guys on the floor at a time. It’s not that those two players for Miami can’t come out and win this game by themselves, I just don’t think they can cover.
The Sharp Pick
When it comes to placing our NBA picks, I predict that this game ends at around 98-93 in favor of Miami. The Spurs will again try and throw everything but the kitchen sink at Lebron James, and as long as the Spurs don’t allow a lot of three pointers, the big three can kill them all they want.
The Spurs showed they can out-pace Miami if they want to, and they also can play small ball better than Miami. I think Eric Spoelstra has run out of ideas, and all that stands in the way of another Spurs championship is the role players of the Heat, and that doesn’t make me feel good about Miami’s chances.
My NBA Pick: Spurs +7