NBA Picks: Spurs vs. Hawks

Steven Suarez

Saturday, January 19, 2013 4:51 PM GMT

The Hawks and Spurs meet up for the first time this season. Tim Duncan and company are favored by four points on the road. What's the right NBA pick for this one?

San Antonio Spurs vs. Atlanta Hawks

Odds Overview

Much of the early movement has come on the total and not on the spread. Opening at 199.5, the O/U can also be found as low as 197.5 at various sportsbooks – make sure you're acting fast and getting your bang for your buck with these NBA odds.

As for the spread, the Spurs are favored by four points at the moment for this trip to Atlanta. While San Antonio has been excellent against the number (24-17-1 ATS), the Hawks have struggled in that respect at 16-22-1 ATS 

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs won their third straight game last night, beating a shorthanded Golden State team 95-88 at home. They did however fail to cover as 11.5-point favorites.

In all, San Antonio shot 45.0 percent from the floor and were excellent at the charity stripe (18-of-20), making up for some struggles from deep (5-of-22 for 22.7 percent from three). The Spurs outscored the Warriors 44-28 in the paint, which ended up making a considerable difference in the outcome.

Tim Duncan and Tony Parker did their thing like normal. Duncan had 24 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks and Parker went for 25 points (10-of-18 FG) and eight assists. Tiago Splitter's 19 points and nine boards were a nice contribution too.

Now San Antonio heads back on the road, where they've struggled to please backers for the most part. They're just 2-7 ATS in their previous nine road contests.

That being said, the Spurs have been outstanding on back-to-backs this season. They're 9-4-2 ATS in their past 15 matchups when playing on zero days rest.

Atlanta Hawks

It'd be fair to say this month has not been too kind to the Hawks. They're just 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in 10 January games.

The competition hasn't been that difficult either. Atlanta's fell to the likes of Detroit, Cleveland and Washington already this month and we shouldn't have to tell you how poor those three teams have been this season.

Last night the Hawks lost by five in Brooklyn, with the absence of Al Horford rearing its ugly head. Without him in the lineup Atlanta was outscored by ten in the paint and were out-rebounded 48-35 by Reggie Evans and company.

Jeff Teague led the Hawks with 21 pints and 10 assists, while Josh Smith, Kyle Korver and Devni Harris also scored in double figures. But the Hawks just didn't make enough plays in the closing quarter.

The good news is that Horford (hamstring) is expected to return tonight. The bad news? The Hawks are likely to be without Lou Williams (knee) and DeShawn Stevenson (knee), while Anthony Morrow (hip) remains out.

NBA Pick

The home team in this head-to-head series has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, but the Spurs are 5-1 ATS in the previous six matchups – which trend will come true for us tonight?

Well, San Antonio fell short of a cover for us last night, but we can't help but feel they're going to be on the right side of things here. The Spurs are simply playing much much better basketball than the Hawks at the moment.

But we are going to stay away from a ATS play and instead go with the UNDER for our NBA betting. We realize that San Antonio can score pretty much at will, but they've also been better defensively than some may realize. As a matter of fact, both the Spurs and Hawks are in the top ten in defensive efficiency.

The UNDER is 7-3 in Atlanta's last 10 games and has also hit in seven of San Antonio's past eight matchups. We're looking for more of the same with our basketball picks tonight.

[gameodds]5/134356/43/us[/gameodds]

Free NBA Picks: UNDER 199.5 at 5Dimes

Elsewhere out West, the Clippers will host the Wizards~