NBA Picks: Spurs & Nets To Go 'Over' In Tony Brown's Coaching Debut

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, January 11, 2016 7:35 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 11, 2016 7:35 PM UTC

The Brooklyn Nets have fired Lionel Hollins as head coach while promoting assistant Tony Brown on an interim basis, and look for lots of points in his coaching debut vs. the Spurs.


[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2883026, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
NBA Pick: Over 194 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


With the team with the second best record in the NBA squaring off with a team that just fired its head coach, look for a relatively high scoring game Monday night when those red-hot San Antonio Spurs (32-6, 26-12 ATS) pay a visit to the Brooklyn Nets (10-27, 20-17 ATS) at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY at 7:35 ET in a game available on YES.

The posted total at 5 Dimes is 194 for this contest with the NBA odds on the ‘over’ set at -103.


Third Choice on NBA Futures
The Spurs were the third choice to win the NBA Championship on the Futures Odds before the season at consensus odds of only 4/1, longer odds than only the Warriors and Cavaliers, and they are certainly showing why so far. In fact, only in a season where those Warriors are currently sitting at 35-2 could San Antonio be flying relatively under the radar with its sensational 32-6 record.

And then there are the Nets, who have the second worst record in the Eastern Conference at 10-27 ahead of only the lowly 4-36 Philadelphia 76ers. Brooklyn has now been the losing NBA Pick in four straight games overall following a 103-89 loss in Detroit on Saturday and in nine straight games nine straight games here at home since beating those 76ers back on December 10th.

So after going a full calendar month without a home win, management finally had enough and fired Coach Lionel Hollins Sunday, promoting assistant Tony Brown on an interim basis.


First Meeting Was a Rout
This is the second and final meeting between these teams this season following an easy 102-75 romp by San Antonio at home during the first week of this season on October 30th, and the Spurs reached those 102 points despite the Nets generally playing at a snail’s pace in the methodical system that Hollins favored, a system that worked from him when he coached the Memphis Grizzlies but that did not translate well in Brooklyn.

And that shooting by the Spurs was an early precursor of how this season would go, as they lead the NBA in field goal percentage at a robust 49.1 percent, rank second in three-point shooting at 38.4 percent and rank third in offensive efficiency grading out at 108.3 points per 100 possessions, all leading to 103.6 points per game.

The Spurs could easily surpass that scoring average here vs. a Brooklyn defense ranked 24th in field goal percentage allowed and 18th in three-point defense, especially if Brooklyn’s interim coach Brown loosens the reins and allows the Nets to run more than they did under Hollins.


Different Brooklyn Style?
And Brown may do just that, as in the written statement regarding the dismissal of Hollins, Nets’ owner Mikhail Prokhorov wrote “we are going to create a winning culture and identity and give Brooklyn a team that it can be proud of and enjoy watching." Perhaps the “enjoy watching” phrase was a veiled dig at Hollins’ methodical system?

It is this possible stylistic change that has us liking the ‘over’ in this contest. And besides, even with the Nets ranking second to last in the NBA in scoring at 95.7 points per game, their defense is allowing 102.3 points per contest and that combined total of 198.0 points is already higher than this posted total even before adjusting for a Nets’ possible change in identity!


Trending the ‘over’
Finally, the ‘over’ is now 4-0 in the Spurs’ last four games overall as well as an identical 4-0 on their last four games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The ‘over’ is also 7-3 in the Nets’ last 10 home games vs. teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Also keep in mind that regardless of trends, the Nets may deviate from the plodding style of their former coach Hollins under Brown.

With all of this in mind, look for an ‘over’ when San Antonio visits Brooklyn on Monday.

comment here