NBA Picks: Side With Clippers +8 to Cover vs. Defending Champ Warriors

Darin Zank

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 5:26 PM GMT

Golden State and the LA are both off to perfect starts to this season, but the Warriors are also 4-0 against the NBA odds, winning their first four games by an average of 25 points.

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Clippers-Warriors Betting Odds
Most of Wednesday's NBA odds market opened Golden State at right around -8 for this game, with a total of 218. In the early betting many books dropped that spread to 7.5 points, and bumped the total to 220.

Those out there thinking about backing Los Angeles to win this game outright could get a price of +305 on the moneyline at 5Dimes.

 

The Situation
Los Angeles is off to a 4-0 start to this season (2-2 ATS), after beating Phoenix Monday night 102-96. The Clippers shot a respectable 45 percent from the field Monday, and held the Suns to just 37 percent shooting, but hit just eight-of-27 shots from beyond the arc, got outrebounded 66-50 and missed on the cover as eight-point home favorites.

Saturday LA beat Sacramento 105-100, shooting 51 percent from the floor, but hit just four-of-17 from 3-point land and missed on the cover at -6.

On the young season so far the Clippers are shooting 48 percent from the floor, but just 28 percent from long range and 70 percent from the free-throw line.

Golden State, meanwhile, is also 4-0 this season (4-0 ATS), after mauling Memphis Monday night 119-69, cruising to the cover as a nine-point home favorite. The Warriors actually trailed the Grizzlies by a point after one quarter, then exploded to lead by 19 at the half and by 44 through three quarters. On the night Golden State shot 51 percent, and held Memphis to just 27 percent.

Saturday the Warriors won at New Orleans 134-120, covering at -6; Friday they won at Houston 112-92, covering at -1; and last Tuesday they opened the season by beating the Pelicans 111-95, covering at -10.

It's a little scary, but this Golden State team that won 67 games last season might be even better this season. So far the Warriors lead the league in shooting at 49 percent and rank third in FG defense, holding foes to just 38 percent.

 

Clippers-Warriors Recent Rivalry
Last season Golden State took three of four games from Los Angeles, although the Clippers managed a split of the games ATS. The Warriors won the first meeting at home 121-104, covering at -5; LA won the second meeting 100-86, holding Golden State to one of its worst offensive performances of the season; the Warriors won the next meeting 106-98 but the Clippers covered as nine-point road dogs; and finally Golden State won at Staples Center 110-106, taking that game outright as a three-point dog.

Three of those games played UNDER, as they averaged 208 total points, against an average OVER/UNDER of 216.

The Warriors outshot Los Angeles in those four games combined 49 percent to 44 percent.

Going back a couple of seasons the Clippers outlasted Golden State in seven games in a Western Conference first-round playoff series, helping spark this West Coast rivalry.

 

Clippers-Warriors Free NBA Picks
Golden State took three of four games from LA last season, but only once by more than eight points. And while the Warriors look absolutely great so far this season, the Clips are a little deeper than last year. Also, playing on the road means Los Angeles might be getting an extra bucket or two on the spread. We like the Clips for tonight, plus the points. Also, these teams squeezed in three UNDERS out of four last year, in part because those totals were so high. Tonight's total is high, too.

NBA Picks: Los Angeles +8 (-105) & UNDER 219.5 (-105) at Heritage