NBA Picks: Sharp Total 'Over' In Knicks vs. Mavericks For West Conference Playoff Ticket

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, March 30, 2016 2:31 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 30, 2016 2:31 PM UTC

The Mavericks are coming into their game tonight against the Knicks in do-or-die mode. NBA Odds have been moving constantly since they opened, so where to win a wager on this game tonight?

Do or die
As of today, the Mavs are a half game out of the 8th seed in the Western Conference, and while they are really banged up, a game like this tonight is a must-win. After tonight, Dallas has only seven games left on their regular season schedule, and six of them are against teams that are currently in the playoffs in either conference. Despite them being banged up, tonight is a must-win.

That being said, while the Mavs will bring their A-game offensively in this one, they have been in must-win mode for some time now, and it has not helped their defense at all. The Mavs are giving up 115 points per game in their last five games, and in the first halves of those they have given up 59 points per contest. These issues derive in the sharp NBA odds lines for this game.

This has me leaning towards a first half play on the total of this one at 101. While the Knicks struggle to score at times this season, they should have little trouble scoring on the Mavs in the first half of Wednesday’s game. The Knicks are averaging about 50 points per first half this season, and about the same amount when playing on the road.

On the road the Knicks' defense tends to give up about 51 points per first half, so while they might play slower, I think the Mavs will speed them up as much as possible in this one, and score more points in the first half. At 101, this first half line is just a bit too low for the pace that this game could take on with the Mavs back in Dallas.


The Sharp Pick
The Knicks have given up 51 points per first half in their last five games, and with how badly the Mavs play defense, even at home, this is probably the best play for this game. In the Mavs last 10 home games, Dallas has given up 112 points per game, and is averaging giving up 57 points per first half in those 10 games.

Carmelo Anthony and Dirk Nowitzki will be very busy on offense tonight, and with no credible defender for either one of them, it could be a big night for the two veteran sharpshooters. It is hard then to get a specific NBA pick due to the importance of the match for both teams.

Even Kristaps Porzingis might fuel off the fact that he is playing against Nowitzki, the player everyone compares him to. The only problem with the comparisons is Porzingis is going to be a much better defender than Dirk, and he may in fact become a better all around player. While that debate is for another time, especially considering Nowitzki has a ring, Porzingis has been playing well recently after hitting the rookie wall, and his offense is going to play an important factor tonight as well. With all things considered tonight, I see both teams getting above the 50-point mark in the first half of this one.

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Free NBA Pick: 'Over' 101 -105 (1st half)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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