NBA Picks: Sharp Action Betting 'Over' in Tonight's Cavaliers vs. Suns

Charles Stark

Monday, December 28, 2015 12:37 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 28, 2015 12:37 PM UTC

Cavaliers looked nothing like a championship caliber team on their most recent trip to Portland, Suns just lost to the worst team in basketball at home. Who will be our NBA pick tonight?

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NBA Pick: Over 201.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


NBA odds have made the total on this game at 202 and the spread around 8. This is an interesting number considering that both of these teams have only gone over it one time in their last five games. For one of my selections today I will back over the total in a game in which I think the odds makers expect both teams to score.


Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is averaging 99.9 points per game while shooting 44.6% from the field, and allowing 95.3 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field. They have had two really bad performances on the offensive end the last two games so this is a good spot for them to get back into the groove. Kylie Irving should be back to put in some more minutes after taking the night off in Portland. What I really expect from Cleveland offensively is to put up and knock down a lot more shots from beyond the arc than they normally do, along with simply having a much more efficient offense all the way around. Defensively the Cavaliers have been solid all the way around ranking in the top 10 in most defensive categories, and tonight they face a Phoenix team that has been struggling, not to mention without leading scorer Eric Bledsoe. Nevertheless, the Cavaliers will be faced with a pretty interesting challenge from a Phoenix team that likes to get up and down the floor and push tempo. I expect Cleveland to get out of this game with the win but for Phoenix, who is on their own losing streak, to put up enough points to get us over the total.


Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is averaging 103.7 points per game while shooting 44.8% from the field, and allowing 105.4 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field. The big story of course is the fact that they will be without Bledsoe, and although they are on a losing streak they still have enough weapons to put up points. Offensively I like the fact they will push the pace as much as they can as they attempt 86.2 shots per game which ranks seventh in the NBA. Also, they shoot 37.9% from beyond the arc which ranks second in the NBA. Defensively Phoenix is one of the worst teams in the league and they rank dead last in opponent shooting percentage. They also rank third to last in opponent three point shooting percentage, and defensive scoring. The best they can hope for tonight is to try and keep up with Cleveland who is an efficient offensive team and are due for a big scoring night.

Both of these teams like to shoot the three-pointer and I expect we'll see a lot of them tonight. I also think with both of these teams are in two pretty good bounce back scenarios so we will see a lot of shots drop. For one of your NBA picks I recommend backing the over in what should be an up-tempo game with a lot of basketballs flying from beyond the arc.

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