NBA Picks: San Antonio Spurs +6 vs. Miami Heat

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, June 8, 2013 6:30 PM GMT

Saturday, Jun. 8, 2013 6:30 PM GMT

Will Miami do what they have done in the past after dropping Game 1, or will the Spurs out-execute the Heat down the stretch once again?


NBA Playoff Picks: Spurs vs. Heat Game 2
 

The NBA Odds for this one favor the Heat even more than in Game 1. They are -6 favorites, with a total of 187 ½. 

We have been hearing it all weekend. The Heat always come back from a Game 1 loss, and the Heat have dropped both Game 1’s of their NBA Championships. I hear the talk, but I’m not buying it. I think the Spurs have value here once again.

Chris Bosh has been turned into a jump shooter, Dwyane Wade is not healthy enough to contribute down the stretch, and we have already seen what happens when Lebron James tries to beat the Spurs by himself.

While I expect the Heat to come out and play a great Game 2, six points is still too many, and while I think the Heat will win this game, I doubt they cover the points. All of the trends go with Miami here when it comes to their NBA playoff records. They are outstanding coming off of a loss both SU and ATS, but the Spurs also have some trends on their side. 

San Antonio is 7-1 SU in their last eight road games, and the Heat are only 2-4 ATS in their last six home games. The Heat are also 3-6 ATS in their last nine games against the Spurs. 

James will get whatever he wants Sunday. I expect a standout and MVP performance, but if he gets no help, the Heat cannot cover against the Spurs. San Antonio will let Lebron get his in this game, but as long as no one else is hurting them, the Spurs are going to be able to keep it close, and hope that the Heat collapse in the 4th quarter, something they have been known to do against Texas teams in the Finals.

The Spurs have covered two of their last three against the Heat overall, and they have covered their last two meetings with the Heat in Miami. I see the Spurs once again covering the number, and they will likely have a chance at the end to steal a win, especially if Miami scores only scores 16 points in the 4th quarter.

Just to let you know how lopsided that win was for the Spurs, the Heat out shot the Spurs from the field and from three, plus they outrebounded them and but still lost. This will likely be another low scoring game, and I think that will once again favor the Spurs in our NBA picks.

My Pick: Spurs +6 at Bet 365

[gameodds]5/238031/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

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