NBA Picks: Rockets vs. Warriors

Jeff Grant

Friday, March 8, 2013 1:00 PM GMT

Friday, Mar. 8, 2013 1:00 PM GMT

The Houston Rockets are dangerous road underdogs against the Golden State Warriors Friday night, considering they’ve averaged 128 points in the first two meetings during the 2012-13 NBA season.

Let’s take a closer look at the NBA betting odds for this Western Conference affair, with the opening tip scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Earning a split

Houston ended up splitting its recent home-and-home series with the Dallas Mavericks, as it looks to bounce back from a 112-108 setback as 1.5-point road underdogs Wednesday night, while going UNDER the posted total of 221.

The Rockets are 18-15 straight up (SU) and 17-15-1 against the spread (ATS) in March the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 19-14 in that situation.

Season-long homestand

Golden State has opened up its season-long seven-game homestand with a pair of victories, including an 87-83 win over the Sacramento Kings as 11-point home favorites Wednesday, while going UNDER the total of 224.5.

The Warriors are 3-1 SUATS as home favorites of three points or less this season, with the UNDER cashing in three of those four contests.

Series dominance

When looking over the NBA odds page, cappers will have a hard time passing up the points, considering the Rockets have won 16 of the last 18 meetings in this series, while the OVER is 16-4-1 in the last 21 played in the Bay Area.

It’s still important to point out that the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games between these conference rivals.

Review my pick from their last matchup.

210 or higher

Both of these teams rank among the top 10 in the league in scoring, which is why I’m a bit surprised that the Warriors are 0-6 ATS when playing with a betting total of 210 or higher—losing five of those games in SU fashion.

The Rockets are 5-8 SUATS when playing on the road within that particular range, with the OVER going 8-5 in that situation.

[gameodds]5/220509/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Rockets as one of their NBA picks, as they’ve gone 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games versus teams with a winning record, while the Warriors are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in that situation.

NBA Pick:  Houston Rockets +2.5 at Bovada

Also check out my NBA Picks: 76ers vs. Heat article for another free pick.

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