NBA Picks: Rockets vs. Warriors

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, February 12, 2013 3:08 PM GMT

Tuesday, Feb. 12, 2013 3:08 PM GMT

The Golden State Warriors return home after one of their worst road trips in franchise history, but they should be properly motivated to take on the Houston Rockets Tuesday night.


Let’s take a closer look at the betting line for this Western Conference affair that tips off at 10:30 p.m. ET on NBATV.

For more Western Conference action, check out our NBA Picks: Tuesday's Value Plays article.

Alternate universe 

Houston has alternated wins and losses over its last four games, as it attempts to bounce back from a 117-111 setback to the Sacramento Kings as 6.5-point road favorites, while going OVER the total in each contest in that span. 

The Rockets 1-2 against the spread (ATS) off an upset loss as a road favorite, while the UNDER has cashed in all three of those opportunities. 

Dreadful

Golden State dropped all four games of its most recent trip away from the Bay Area, as it allowed 118.5 points and was outscored by 20.7 points per game. It was a surprising result, considering the franchise was 14-11 on the road entering the month of February.

The Warriors are 7-3 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more this season, as they suffered a humiliating 140-109 defeat to the Rockets as 2.5-point underdogs a week ago.

More on that game 

Sports handicappers are going to have a hard time not taking the points when looking over the NBA odds page, considering the Rockets have won 15 of the last 17 meetings in this series, including the 31-point win at the Toyota Center earlier this month. Houston tied a league record in knocking down 23 3-pointers in that affair, which led to the highest amount of points scored by a team during the 2012-13 season.

Heading into the break

The Warriors have won their last game before the All-Star break in each of their last nine seasons, which should supply them enough motivation in putting an end to what’s currently a season-long losing streak. The Rockets will be playing the front end of a back-to-back situation on the road—heading to Southern California to take on the Los Angeles Clippers Wednesday.

Betting trend

I definitely believe that the sportsbooks are setting a trap for NBA bettors to land on the road underdog in this spot, and I’m not falling for it. Golden State has won all five of its games as home favorites of 3.5 to 6 points this season, while covering the spread in four of those contests.

[gameodds]5/218271/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Warriors as one of their NBA picks tonight, as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Rockets will fall to 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games away from the Lone Star State.

NBA Pick: Golden State Warriors -4.5 at BetOnline

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