NBA Picks for Rockets vs. Warriors: Game 1 ATS & Total

Jordan Sharp

Monday, May 18, 2015 12:07 PM GMT

I’m 33-20-2 with my NBA picks so far in the NBA playoffs & focus now on the Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors & the Houston Rockets. 

Spread Pick
The NBA odds have the Rockets as +10 road underdogs in Game 1, and after eliminating the Clippers in a fascinating seven game series, the Rockets are playing their best basketball of the year. While they never won a game against the Warriors in the regular season, the Rockets also look differently now than they did during the regular season, which the first two of the three games were played early in the season. In their last three games against the Clippers, the Rockets clicked offensively like we haven’t seen from them in a while, and that momentum could play a factor on the road in Game 1.

Houston averaged nearly 119 points per game in their final three games of the West semi finals, and if this team can find that kind of success against the Warriors small lineup, they may be able to give Golden State a series. Despite the fact that the Warriors are 3-0 ATS this season with four or more days off in between games, I think the lay-off will hurt them on the big stage against a team that seems to be playing their best basketball of the season.

While I am still picking the Warriors to win the series and this game SU, much like in the Memphis series, I think early on the sportsbooks are going to overvalue the Warriors just a little. At +10 the price is too high to fade the Rockets, especially when they have been scoring nearly 120 per game recently. Golden State is only 2-3 ATS at home this postseason, and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games dating back to the regular season as double digit favorites. The Rockets on the other hand are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs, and I see them keeping this one within single digits.

NBA Pick ATS: Rockets +10

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Total Pick
I was zoned into the total for my NBA picks on the Rockets last series, and for the most part the Warriors as well. But with the sportsbooks not taking any chances this time, the total is sitting at 219 points. However, like I mentioned above, the Rockets’ pace of play, along with the Dubs fast paced game might make this seemingly high total a little undervalued. These two teams were the two fastest paced teams in the NBA this year. The Warriors and Rockets both averaged around 100 possessions per game, and if that happens in this series, you can bet the scoring is going to be huge.

So far in the playoffs, the Rockets have scored an average of 111 points per game, but they’ve given up about the same about. Now in the Conference Finals against the number one offense that boasts an offensive efficiency of nearly 110, the over has to be the play in Game 1. Even though it will be at the Rockets advantage if they can muster up some defense like they did in their last three games, the combination of rest for Golden State, and lack thereof of for Houston will ultimately lead to the over here. The over is 6-1 for Houston in their last seven playoff games, and the over has cashed in all five of Houston’s road games this postseason. Take it once again, and we’ll think about it some more when the NBA odds total is north of 220 in Game 2.

NBA Pick on Total: OVER 219 at Pinnacle Sports