NBA Picks: Rockets vs. Heat

Jeff Grant

Wednesday, February 6, 2013 1:55 PM GMT

Wednesday, Feb. 6, 2013 1:55 PM GMT

The Miami Heat are one of the better home teams in the NBA, which could present a lot of problems for the offensive-minded Houston Rockets Wednesday night.


Let’s take a closer look at the NBA odds for this non-conference affair from AmericanAirlines Arena in South Beach.

Running up the score

Houston earned a 140-109 victory over the Golden State Warriors as 2.5-point home favorites last night, while going well above the posted total of 217. The Rockets connected on a league record-tying 23 3-point shots, with point guard Jeremy Lin leading the way—finishing with a game-high 28 points. The franchise is 4-1 against-the-spread (ATS) in its last five games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game. 

Time to turn it on?

Miami returned home from a four-game road trip to collect an uneventful 99-94 win over the Charlotte Bobcats as 14-point home favorites Monday night, while going UNDER the total for the third time in four contests. The Heat have five games remaining until the All-Star break, which includes home games against the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers on deck.

I’m expecting the defending champions to be motivated during this upcoming stretch—especially since they’ve gone 22-6 in February the last two-plus seasons.

Series history 

The Heat have won their last six games versus the Rockets, which happens to be their second-longest active win streak versus a Western Conference opponent. Miami came away with a 113-110 victory over Houston as 5.5-point road favorites in the first meeting on Nov. 12, while going OVER the posted total of 194.5.

LeBron James is the player to watch on the offensive end, as he’s averaged 30.8 points in four meetings with the Rockets as a member of the Heat.

Back-to-back days

Before going over the NBA odds, sports bettors should note that the Houston Rockets have gone 5-9 ATS when playing on back-to-back days during the 2012-13 campaign. It’s also important to note that the UNDER is 8-6 in that particular situation.

Turnovers will be the key 

James & Co. should have an easy time scoring points in transition in this matchup, as the Rockets lead the league in turnovers, while the Heat are averaging 22.0 fast-break points in their last 11 games. Lin has committed 10 combined turnovers in two career games versus Miami.

[gameodds]5/217294/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Heat as one of their NBA picks Wednesday, as they’ve covered the number in seven of their last 10 games versus non-conference foes. The Rockets will fall to 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games.

NBA Pick: Miami Heat -8 at Pinnacle

For more free picks, be sure to read our NBA Picks: Wednesday Value Picks article

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