Going 'Over' With Rockets-Jazz For Thursday’s NBA Picks

Wednesday, December 5, 2018 6:48 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2018 6:48 PM UTC

The Utah Jazz look like an "under" team on paper, but they have the "over" at 16-9 this year. That should be the right NBA pick for Thursday’s game versus the Houston Rockets.

<p style="text-align:right;"><em><strong>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Dec. 5: 7-6 ATS, 4-2 Totals</strong></em></p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/houston-rockets-vs-utah-jazz-3569015/odds/" rel="nofollow" title="Live Game Odds">Houston (15-8 SU, 10-13 ATS) at Utah (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS)</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Free NBA Pick: Over</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Best Line: <a href="http://https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4423&amp;book=BetOnline" rel="nofollow" title="Top-Rated Sportbook">BetOnline</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569015, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,999991,19,93,999996], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>We’re not going to lie: At first blush, Thursday’s TNT matchup between the Houston Rockets and the Utah Jazz looks like a good spot to put the UNDER in our <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/">NBA picks</a>. Neither team has performed very well on offense this year. And <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/friday-nba-pick-bet-under-in-jazz-lakers/87590/" rel="nofollow" title="SBR's Best Sportsbooks">we got paid</a> a couple weeks back when the Los Angeles Lakers beat Utah 90-83 (way UNDER 221). Seems legit.<br /><br />As you can see, we’re recommending the OVER instead. The first lines have just hit the board as I write this, and Utah have opened at –2.5 with a total of 218.5. The Jazz project as 1.5-point faves at FiveThirtyEight, so if you want some betting value, go for the OVER instead.</p><h2><strong>Put the Chris Back in Christmas</strong></h2><p>Well, the first time they met this year, the UNDER cashed in. It was way back on Oct. 24, the fourth game of the season for both clubs; Utah won that game, 100-89 (UNDER 217) as 1-point home faves. Neither team shot the ball well from anywhere on the court. Calling it “bowling-shoe ugly” would be an insult to bowling shoes.</p><p>Things have changed since October. Chris Paul (plus-1.7 BPM) didn’t play that game for Houston, one of five he’s missed this year as he tries to get his hamstrings in working order. But Carmelo Anthony (minus-6.4 BPM) did play for Houston. He’s not with the team anymore. It’ll be a different Rockets team we see on Thursday, one with more offensive flow – and less defense from Paul (minus-0.5 DBPM) than usual.</p><h2>Korver 3</h2><p>The Jazz have changed, too. They re-acquainted themselves with Kyle Korver (minus-2.2 BPM) last week, sending Alec Burks (minus-3.9 BPM) and a pair of second-round picks to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for one of the league’s most famous 3-point specialists. Korver has nailed 46.4 percent of his threes this season; the OVER is 2-1 in the three games Korver has played for Utah thus far.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Salt Lake City welcomes back Kyle Korver to the &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/utahjazz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@utahjazz&lt;/a&gt;!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;WATCH on &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/NBATV?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@NBATV&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/OsUf5L6P4Q\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/OsUf5L6P4Q&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— NBA (@NBA) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1070148405983367173?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;December 5, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p>Neither the Rockets nor the Jazz play Wednesday, and Houston didn’t play Tuesday, either, so both teams should be well-rested for this matchup – and Paul’s tender hamstrings should be a bit more accommodating. Both teams are also relatively healthy for a change. It’s too early to say they’ve got all their problems sorted out, but Utah sure looked good beating the San Antonio Spurs 139-105 (OVER 216) on Tuesday. And the Rockets have the OVER at 8-1 in their past nine games, making it 9-4 overall since they sent Anthony home.<br /><br />May the sphere be with you.</p>
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