NBA Picks: Rockets' Confidence Will Keep Game Close vs. Warriors

Charles Stark

Wednesday, April 27, 2016 1:14 PM GMT

For game five between the Warriors and the Rockets, NBA odds boards have made Golden State a strong favorite. Can Houston find a way to shock the Warriors?

NBA odds boards have made Golden State a +9.5 favorite like at BetOnline -110.  Although I am hard pressed to think Houston can win this series even with Curry for the Warriors out for one of my NBA picks I will take Houston plus the points. Despite their last game Houston should come in believing they can win.

 

Houston Rockets
In game four the Rockets shot just 42.3% from the field and a horrendous 18.5% from beyond the arc.  If they ever needed a bounce back game this will be the time with the series on the line. The good news for them is they will have Patrick Beverly back who was out in that game when the Warriors put it away in the third quarter.

What has me wanting to back them though are that I thought they played well in game two, won game three, and went into halftime tied with Golden State last game. Statistically they hung with the Warriors last game in couple facets like rebounds and turnovers. What really hurt them was ball movement as Golden State put on a clinic with 38 assists and exploded for 41 points coming out of the break.

The Rockets have caught the Warriors in a great spot though without their best player and a belief they can win this game. If Houston can come into this game with that confidence and play better on the defensive end they could make this game five interesting.

 

Golden State Warriors
The Warriors shot 51.7% from the floor and 52.5% from distance in game four getting up 40 attempts from beyond the arc. Of course the highlight of this game is what the Warriors don’t have and that is Curry. Still, they have managed well without him at times this season and although they might miss a beat or two this is a deep team that should be able to finish off the Rockets.

I think there is a bit of value on the line though as Houston has shown at times the ability to hang in with the league’s best team. There are some interesting statistics as how much this team might be affected without Curry.

On the season in the plus minus statistics dealing with scoring per possession the Warriors were +523 with him on the floor and -104 with him off. His overall impact can’t be underestimated but I expect Golden State to adjust well going forward. Winning by double digits though without him is a bit of a tall order in my opinion but expect Golden State to find a way to pull out a single digit victory.

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Free NBA Pick: Houston Rockets +9.5 (-110)
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline