NBA Picks: Road Dog Cavaliers Bring Great Value vs. Warriors

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, June 13, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 13, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

The Warriors return home where they are 50-3 for the season, with a 3-1 series lead in an effort to avoid a cross country flight to Cleveland. Let's analyze the NBA Odds.

The questionable sportsmanship antics of Draymond Green finally took its toll in Game #4. Or maybe it was just because Lebron James was involved. In any event, Green will miss Game #5 of the NBA Championship Series between his Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers as he is suspended by the league after he was assessed a flagrant 1 foul against James. We will find out his true worth to the team when the Warriors and Cavs suit up for Game #5 at 9:00 PM ET as televised by ABC TV.

When last we left these teams on Friday night, Golden State was pulling out a 108-97 victory at Cleveland to take a 3 games to 1 lead in this year’s finals. They did so with the benefit of a 58-42 second half. This time the bench had only a 22-15 advantage. But Curry and Thompson made a big splash scoring a combined 63 points including 11/ 22 from behind the arc and 16/17 from the stripe. Golden State had the edge in key statistical categories with a +3 rebound margin and a 23/9 assist/TO ratio to the Cavs 15/11. In addition, the Warriors went to the line 31 times to Cleveland’s 26. Though James and Irving scored a combined 59 points, they missed contributions from Love who could add just 11/5 as he returned from concussion symptoms.

Now the Warriors return to a home court where they are 50-3 for the season, with a 3-1 series lead in an effort to avoid a cross country flight to Cleveland. Just like every other team who has beaten Golden State, Cleveland knows what they must do. The blueprint is clear. The below factors must all be achieved to limit the lethal Golden State transition game: Cleveland must have a positive rebound margin in the game, they must limit their turnovers and they must have more foul shot attempts than does Golden State. That means taking the ball to the paint and either getting fouled or scoring. That statistical advantage is clear for Cleveland in their 120-90 win over Golden State last Wednesday. It was the only time in 6 meetings with the Warriors this year that Cleveland has cracked the 100 point offensive mark. The fact that key contributor Draymond Green will be missing this game is a huge advantage for the Cavaliers, in my opinion.

From a technical perspective, the situation clearly favors Cleveland. Greater than .668 NBA Playoff road teams when coming off a loss and getting 5 or more points, are a greater than 70% situational play including over 75% if the foe is greater than .750. In addition, as we have profited from in these Playoffs already, we understand that beginning in Game #5, Playoff Series between Class A teams (greater than .667) clearly tend to the Under . With Unders offered by NBA Odds holding a 52-30 advantage in the NBA Playoffs this year (13-4) in Round #3 and #4, we will take advantage of that history along with the absence of Green to back a Cleveland team to fight to the final buzzer and get this pointspread victory in a low scoring affair for our NBA pick.

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Free NBA Pick:  Cavaliers +200 & Under 205 -105
Best Line Offered:  at YouWager & Heritage

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