Our first losing night in three days was on Sunday, and if it weren’t for Curry's injury, we would have had our third winning night in a row. However, we are still 5-3 in our last eight NBA prop picks!
Luol Deng - O/U 1½ 3pointers made
Luol Deng has always been a solid three-point shooter, however, after going through some slumps in his final years in Chicago, Deng has found his stroke from beyond the arc in this series. Deng is shooting a sizzling 65 percent from beyond the arc in this series, and his three-point attempt rate has been through the roof. In the regular season, Deng had a three-point attempt rate of 34.5 percent, which was still high compared to his career numbers of only 16.6 percent
However, the Hornets have been leaving him open, and he has taken advantage. In the playoffs, nearly half of all Deng’s field goal attempts have been three-pointers, and with that in mind, 1½ three-pointers made is simply too low for how he has been shooting. It may fall off at any point, but if it doesn’t, I’m assuming Deng attempts five or six threes in this one, and with the way he is shooting, two makes from beyond the arc should be an easy NBA Pick to cash. The Hornets have started putting Frank Kaminsky on Deng, which is a mismatch of epic proportions.
Free NBA Pick: Over 1½ -115
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Dirk Nowitzki - O/U 18½ Points
It’s now or never for Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks, and with how many injuries the Mavs have been dealing with in this series and late in the season, they are going to need Nowitzki to shoot, and shoot a lot in this game. So far in this series, Dirk is averaging 19.5 points per game, but they let him loose in Game 4 as he shot the ball 21 times.
They are going to need that many attempts and then some of they want any chance of besting the Thunder on the road. Playoffs Dirk has always been a good horse to ride, and, even after his 27-point explosion in Game 4, they sportsbooks are still discounting him for whatever reason. The Mavs are going to go down swinging, and they will come in the form of Nowitzki shooting the ball about every other trip down the court. He played 40 minutes in Game 4, and I expect more of the same in Game 5.
Free NBA Pick: Over 18½ -115
Best Line Offered: at Intertops
Mason Plumlee - O/U 24 Points, rebounds and assists
I’m not sure if the guys setting the NBA Odds watched Games 2 or 3 of this series, but Mason Plumlee has seen the offense run through him a lot, and it’s shown. He has dropped 16 assists in his last two games alone, and while I doubt he has enough juice to grab another 21 rebounds in Game 4, his points, rebounds and assists total is still too low.
Even if he just gets 3 or 4 assists tonight it’s still too low. He averaged nearly 15 points and 10 rebounds per game against the Clippers in the regular season, and he is continuing that punishment of the Clippers on the boards in this series. He has 31 rebounds in his last two games, and as long as we can get him to double-figures in scoring in this one, the over looks like a strong play.
Free NBA Pick: Over 24 -110
Best Line Offered: at YouWager