NBA Picks: Play Spurs' Bulky Odds & 'Over' 196.5 Against Knicks

Kevin Stott

Friday, January 8, 2016 6:29 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 8, 2016 6:29 PM UTC

Let’s take a look at the recent series Trends, ATS and SU records, streaks and any other pertinent information here and see if we can come up with a decent NBA pick.

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Final Score Prediction: San Antonio Spurs 114  New York Knicks 94
NBA Picks: Spurs -14 & Over 196.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Star Rising superstar Kawhi Leonard and the San Antonio Spurs (31-6 SU, 21-0 Home) welcome Carmelo Anthony and the New York Knicks (17-18 SU, 9-11 Road) to the AT&T Center on Friday night for a fun inter-conference showdown and the second of two meetings between these two teams this 

The Spurs won the first meeting at Madison Square Garden very early on this season, 94-84, covering 7½-point favorites with the game going well under the closing Total of 203. NBA odds have opened the host Spurs up as 13-point favorites (Pinnacle) with the game’s Total (Points) set at 200 (Paddy Power). The Money Line odds see San Antonio priced at -1,600 (32Red) with the visiting Knicks lined at +950 on the takeback. The San Antonio Spurs Team Total Points has been set at 104½ (Sky Bet) with the New York Knicks Team Total Points at 91½ (Sky Bet) while the 1st Half odds see the host Spurs as 8½-point favorites (-101, Marathon) with the 1st Half Total set at 95½ (Over -116, Marathon).


New York Knicks
The New York Knicks (22-15-0 ATS, 13-7 ATS Road) and Head Coach Derek Fisher have been a really pleasant surprise so far this NBA season, and the Knickerbockers (18-19 SU) can get to the .500 mark with a Win here at The Alamo on Friday night but only the former ABA franchise the Spurs always win in San Antonio. New York has been pretty good on the Road this year, especially ATS (13-7, 65%) and with a starting 5 of Center Robin Lopez, Power Forward and Latvian Rookie sensation Kristaps Porzingis, Small Forward Carmelo Anthony (21.7 ppg), Shooting Guard Arron Afflalo and Point Guard José Calderón, and with Arizona product Derrick Williams adding points off the Bench, this is a team that may surprise, but currently in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, New York (#1 in NBA in Free Throw Percentage at 81.7%) still has a lot of work to do this calendar year to simply make the Postseason, but with Anthony playing so well and Porzingis, Afflalo. Lopez and Williams all having really nice years, it’s easy to see why New York has already passed last season’s ugly Win total. On Wednesday, the Knicks beat the heat in Miami, 98-90 as Anthony had 25 points and Lopez a season-high 19 as the visitors won their third straight and found many easy looks against the second-best shot Defense in the NBA. So, bring on the Spurs and the best? And playing in a third Road game in the L4 nights (Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday)? Oooh-eeee. Epsom Salt baths for everyone, including the airplane.


San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs (26-11 ATS, 16-5 ATS Home) are like a machine. A well-oiled, finely tuned machine that has a smart owner and an ample supply of quality spare parts should one of the tires go flat or if the trunk falls off. And like the Knicks, as good as the Spurs were last season, they are way, way better this season. On Wednesday night here at Home in the sacred AT&T Center, San Antonio blasted the Utah Jazz, 123-98, easily covering the 13½-point spread—as well as 1st Quarter and 1st Half lines—to improve to 21-0 at Home and hot on the heels (3½ game back) on the Western Conference-leading and record pace-setting Golden State Warriors (33-2). The Spurs (+405 to win NBA Championship, 10Red) and brilliant Head Coach Gregg Popovich have a tremendous Starting 5 while includes veteran Center Tim Duncan (season-high 18 vs. Jazz), Free Agent-signee (Trail Blazers), Power Forward Lamarcus Aldridge (6-11, 240, Rested Wednesday), SF Kawhi Leonard (50% from 3-Point Land), SG Danny Green and PG Tony Parker (Right Hip) and some wonderful, intelligent depth as David West (14 points, 13 rebounds) plugged in quite nicely for the sitting Aldridge, Patty Mills started at the Point with the 33-year-old Parker sitting out a second straight game and Mills, Ray McCallum and Kyle Anderson. Showing this Depth—with Aldridge and Parker out—the Spurs bench had 5 players in double-digits including Anderson (13 points), Simmons (13 points), ageless vet Manu Ginobili (14 points), Boban Marjanovic (13 points) and McCallum (10 points). And as improved as the Knicks and their roster are, they definitely can’t hang with San Antonio whose third string could produce with any in league history.


Series Trends, Logical Reasoning and Picks
The last meeting between these two teams was that 94-84 Spurs win and cover in The Big Apple in the fourth game of the year, but that was the first Under (202) in the L5 meetings in this series and the Over is 7-3 ATS over the L10 meetings as the team’s averaged over 214 points—San Antonio 113.3, New York 101.0—in those 10 meetings before the November victory at MSG for the Spurs. The L4 games in this series at San Antonio have gone Over (204, 206, 204, 223 total points scored) and the Over is 6-2 ATS the L8 meetings in this series and with the Knicks playing their 3rd Road games in 4 nights, both Aldridge (19.5 ppg, 8.9 rpg) and Parker (12.4 ppg, 5.2 apg) both possibly coming back and Rested and New York having so many scorers (Anthony, Afflalo, Porzingis, Williams) who are feeling good right now, the Over is the logical play here. There will be an abundance of 3’s attempted—especially if the visitors, who are losing an hour here going from EST to CST, get down big—and no doubt New York (16/1 to win Atlantic Division, Ladbrokes) will head in here thinking it can be the first to knock off the Spurs (6-2 ATS at Home vs. East) at Home. And rightfully so as the Knicks looked very good in Miami and the final score was not a reflection of how much New York dominated.

This series is a dead-even 5-5-1 ATS over the L11 and although it’s hard to lay double digits against this red-hot Knicks (W3, 4-1 ATS vs. West) team, they are playing a machine in San Antonio (8-3 ATS L11 Friday games) which is deeper than deep and which has the best Scoring Defense in the NBA (89.2 ppg) and Scoring Differential (+13.2 ppg) in the NBA and are an incredible 12-4 ATS against teams with a  winning record, so Pops gets them ready to play for the games that will really rest this Roster and make them Playoff-ready. San Antonio is 17-9 ATS and New York 13-10 ATS on 1-Day Rest and with the Knicks 4-9 ATS their L13 against the Southwest Division and the Over 9-4 ATS the L13 New York games and 8-3 ATS the L11 Spurs Home games, sticking with what works seems to be the prescription here although this is the best Knicks Rosters in quite some time. still, the Spurs’ (Roster) may be one of the deepest in NBA history and Parker and Aldridge should be up for this one and the hosts could have 10 scorers in double-digits. It does seem oddsmakers are making Spurs backers really pay a premium laying 13 points (Open, Pinnacle) here but they know where the money will likely come on this game and w9ith the Spurs having now won 30 straight overall on their homecourt and getting scoring from everyone, these kind of crazy-high, double-digit Home Point Spreads with this Spurs team may become the norm. Take Spurs & Over as the NBA Picks.

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