It’s a big Monday of second round NBA playoff action, and after a nice weekend of prop action, I am back once again to release my best prop betting picks from the NBA Odds.
Tristan Thompson O/U 18.5 points and rebounds
Tristan Thompson is one of the more unheralded players on the Cavs this season, and after holding out and finally getting paid thanks to GM, Lebron James, Thompson has bee up and down. However, when he gets the minutes, Thompson almost always comes through, and that will certainly be the case here tonight against the Hawks.
Atlanta is not a good rebounding team, and they didn’t really get exposed on that end thanks to the Celtics being even worse. However, now they're up against the Cavaliers, a team that is going to exploit their poor rebounding, and Thompson is going to be a big reason why.
In three games against the Hawks this season, Thompson averaged 9 points and 13.3 rebounds per game. Atlanta ranked dead last in Offensive Rebounding percentage this season at only 19.1, and they were 26th in Defensive Rebounding rate at 72.6. That showed against the Cavs this season, and with Thompson as one of the best offensive rebounders in the game, I expect nothing less than 10-12 rebounds from him tonight, so well add the Over to our NBA picks. As long as he can get some put backs and maybe some lob dunks on the offensive end, his points and rebounds total is an easy over play tonight.
My Pick: Over 18.5 -105
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Tony Parker O/U 5.5 assists
After losing out on Tony Parker’s insane night two nights ago thanks to the Thunder not showing up at all, I am still resentful. So, I’m doubling down on Parker’s assists total tonight, because while I may be chasing after he had 12 assists through three quarters in Game 1, I don’t see that changing. The Spurs need to put pressure on the Thunder defense, and one way they can do that is by letting Parker penetrate into the lane and either score, or find the open man. With Danny Green shooting lights out in Game 1, along with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, it shouldn’t be too hard for Parker to get some assists tonight.
Parker’s assist percentage this season was 29.1 percent, which means that he assisted on nearly 30 percent of all Spurs field goals in the regular season. While his career-highs in that category is over 40 percent, he did not play the minutes needed to dominate that category this season. However, in the playoffs this season, his assist percentage is 39.1 percent.
He has even done this without playing in most of the fourth quarters this entire postseason. Think of it this way. The Spurs had 51 total field goals in Game 1, and Parker assisted on 12 of them. However, assist percentage only measures the assists that a player gets while he is on the floor. Parker is averaging 23.2 minutes this postseason, and he is averaging an assist every 3.75 minutes, or 9.6 per-36 minutes. With an assist total of only 5.5 tonight against the Thunder, he should have no problem hitting the over listed on NBA odds.
My Pick: Over 5.5 -115
Best Line Offered: at Intertops