NBA Picks: Pair of Totals Offer Best Value Friday Night

Jordan Sharp

Friday, November 27, 2015 2:26 PM GMT

After a nice Thanksgiving with no NBA, the league is back with a vengeance tonight with a dozen games on the NBA odds slate. I have found several plays for tonight.

Bucks vs. Magic
While you’re out bludgeoning one another for that flat screen television this morning, the first game to tip off tonight is the Bucks and Magic from the Amway Center. The NBA odds have Magic as -4 favorites with a total of just fewer than 200 points at 199. However, while the Magic have looked like an improved team under Scott Skiles, they are still trying to figure out their rotations. They have started bringing Victor Oladipo off the bench in an attempt to find a bit more offensive balance, but while the Bucks haven’t exactly been consistent this season either, their main issue has been on the defensive end.

In their last five games the Bucks have given up 114 points per game, and if you take away a game that they won and only relinquished 88 points, they have given up nearly 121 points per game in their last four games.  On the season Milwaukee has given up 105 points per game, and after a season where they were one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, it’s hard to tell if their defensive issues are related to just a slow start, or they are permanent. For this game at least, I see them being permanent, and I am going with a play on the over between these two clubs tonight. The over is 10-5 for the Bucks in their first 15 games, and they have given up 107 points per game on the road this season. Take the over, and look for both teams to be well into the 100s.

NBA Pick: Over 199 at Bookmaker

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Bulls vs. Pacers
The Pacers have been one of the most pleasantly surprising teams in the East this season, as they have started the season 9-5 SU and a profitable 10-4 ATS. Tonight they play host to their divisional rivals the Bulls, and the NBA Odds have the Pacers as -3 favorites, with a total of 198 ½. While I am intrigued by the spread, I could easily see both sides cashing tonight, so I am laying off the spread and going with the total instead. While both of these teams are playing at a much faster pace this season, the total of 198 ½ is just a bit too high for the above average defenses between these teams.

The Bulls have been incredible undervalued by the sportsbooks on defense this season after a slow start, but their defense is finally cashing up to where they were in seasons past. The under has cashed in ten of the Bulls first 13 games this season, and going up against the Pacers tonight who are giving up only 95 points per game, this total looks like a lock for the under.

The under is 7-2-1 in the last ten meetings between these two teams, and the Bulls have cashed in all five of the Bulls last five games. The under is also 4-2 in the Bulls last six road games, and it’s cashed in four of the Pacers last six games at home as well. Look for both teams to be in the mid 90s for this one, and the total to fall under tonight as your NBA pick.

NBA Pick: Under 198 at BetOnline

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