We split two pairs of NBA Picks for Christmas Day, but after some tough breaks, we still broke even. Now the day after Christmas is here, and we have double the NBA Odds to choose from. Here are two of my favorite plays for today.
Wolves vs. Nuggets
One of the first late games to tip off is the Wolves and Nuggets from the Pepsi Center. The NBA Odds have the Wolves as huge +10 ½ underdogs in this one, with a total of 211. Minnesota has surpassed the Lakers in most of the team defensive categories as one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, and even when they get healthy I doubt that will change much. They have been able to get some of their young players some much needed reps so far this season, but that will only take them so far in this season’s NBA Picks.
Tonight they should get plastered against the Nuggets in Denver, however the total looks like a much safer and more valuable wager right now. The Nuggets should be able to score all over the Wolves tonight, and the Wolves shouldn’t bee too bad either. Shabazz Muhammad has been having a breakout second season in the NBA, and with the trade of Corey Brewer, he will surely continue to put up big numbers with the minutes he is getting.
For the Wolves the over is 3-0-1 in their last four games, and the over is 8-2 in the Wolves last 10 games as underdogs of +11 or greater. Denver is 5-3 this season cashing the over as a home favorite, and while the Nuggets have been cashing the under recently, I think it’s because they were playing mostly good defensive, or Eastern Conference teams. Against a West team that likes to run, the over is the play here.
NBA Pick: OVER 211 at 5Dimes
Sixers vs. Blazers
Philadelphia has been playing better recently on the defensive end, but still the NBA Odds have them as a +14 underdog on the road against the Blazers tonight. Philly has the ability to cover this spread, but they also are some injury factors tonight that could limit that ability. Tony Wroten sprained his knee and did not play on Tuesday for the Sixers, so even with the extended layoff, it’s still up in the air on whether he will play. For the Blazers, Nicolas Batum is also banged up, and his status for tonight’s game against the Sixers is questionable.
With the large spread and the key injuries, I am laying off the spread and going with a bet on the total instead. At 198 ½ and rising, I think the sharps realize that this total is too low, and betting the over looks like the play for this later game. Even though the trends will tell you to bet the under, at less than 200 points, this game could easily see the Blazers score 110, which I think would easily cash the over.
The Blazers have cashed the over is three of their last four, and five of their last eight overall games. These two teams have already met once this season in Philadelphia, and the final score was in favor of the Blazers at 114-104. Even in Portland, I could easily still see a final score of 108-94, which would also easily cash the over.
NBA Pick: OVER 198 ½ at BetOnline