NBA Picks: Pacers vs. Heat

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, March 10, 2013 6:34 PM GMT

Can the Pacers beat the Heat once again this season, this time in Miami or will the Heat cash in for all of their backers who chose them as their NBA Pick here?

NBA Picks: Pacers vs. Heat

Who cares about the early games? The Pacers and Heat from Miami is the marquee matchup for this evening, and I think I have uncovered some value heading into Sunday night. The Pacers come into this game in the NBA Odds underdogs by 7 points, with an over/under of 190. Who should we back this evening between the top two teams in the Eastern Conference?

Pacers party crashers

I’m not quite sold on the notion that the one Eastern Conference team that stands in the way of Miami is the Pacers. Sure they have beaten the Heat twice already this season, but Miami is two different teams from the regular and in the postseason.

Indiana has been playing well, going 8-2 SU in their last ten games. They have also played well in Miami in their last few trips there. Even though they are only 1-5 SU in their last six trips to Miami, (including the playoffs) they have played well against Miami in that stretch for the most part. Only a game early in the lockout season, and of course the game that Miami knocked them out with last season were the only two instances where Miami blew Indiana out in Miami. The other three games were closer, including 9 and 2-point losses, and their loan SU win against the Heat in Game 2 of their series last season in the East playoffs.

Heat continue streak

How high can the Heat’s current winning streak go? I don’t know, and frankly I don’t really care. I care about them covering spreads, and -7 against a pretty good opponent seems like a trap.

The Heat have lost their last two games ATS, and now for I believe the first time this season, Miami is under .500 ATS at home. The Heat are not only the defending champs, but whoever breaks this streak is going to get some serious attention, and players love that. It would be even bigger if it were the Pacers, who of course have already bested Miami twice this season.

[gameodds]5/220785/43/us[/gameodds]

The Sharp Pick

Obviously we have a few things to take into account. First and most recently I mentioned that the Heat have been struggling ATS at home. In fact they have lost their last five home games ATS and are only 3-7 ATS in their last ten home games.

I am giving out two NBA picks for tonight’s game, and I’m going with the underdog and the under. I think in the end the Heat will win, but I also think that the Pacers will keep the game close and not get blown out like some are predicting.

In six of the last nine times these two have played in Miami, the total has gone under. Even though the over has the recent trends, three of those over games were in the playoffs last season. If you remember, Indiana was leading 2-1 going into Game 4 in Indiana, and people were talking about how the Heat were about to not get it done once again. Then, they hulked up, and dropped 101, 115 and 105 points respectfully in a row to take the series, and the rest is history.

We won’t see any play like that from Miami tonight. This is still the regular season, and teams are tired right now. We are due for a defensive game tonight. In ten games against one another the average score between these two averages out to about 91-91. With all else considered, these both should be solid tonight.

NBA Picks: Pacers +7 & UNDER 190 at bookmaker.eu