NBA Picks: Pacers vs. Heat Game 3 Betting Predictions

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, May 21, 2014 6:04 PM GMT

We took our first loss in the conference finals with Game 2 of this series; however the NBA Odds have been pretty kind to us this postseason. Let’s get back on track with my play on Game 3 of this series back in Miami.

Too big too fail
Much like the banks during the recession, when they were down and seemingly about to crash, the federal government came in and bailed them out. While Lebron James and Dwyane Wade are far from a federal government bailout, they were Miami’s saviors in Game 2. Even though the Heat were playing better, they found themselves trailing for most of the game in Indiana. However with about four minutes to go in the game, Wade and James took over the matchup, and took the victory right out of Indiana’s hands. Now the series is tied, the Pacers have lost home court advantage, and the NBA Odds have the Heat as -6 ½ favorites back at home, with a total of 182 ½.

It was a 10-0 run that sealed the deal for the Heat in the 4th quarter but beyond that the Heat’s big two players were key all throughout the second half. The third quarter was a pivotal time that the Heat weathered nicely, which led to the 4th quarter, where LeBron James and Wade either scored or assisted on every made basket for the Heat in the entire quarter. 

The Heat’s defense was much better as well, and it led to the lower scoring game we ended up with. The Pacers were 0-3 from the floor down the stretch of the game, leaving no room for a potential comeback, as Pacers fans left the game with a few minutes to go. Chris Anderson was another big defensive piece to the Heat’s win, and going against the size of Indiana, you’d think he’ll get some more minutes for the rest of this series. With Anderson on the floor in Game 2, the Pacers shot only 29%, and according to ESPN Stats, the Pacers shot only 3-12 inside five feet with Anderson in the game.


The Sharp Pick
With the Heat heading back home, and with their defense figuring things out, it seems as if they might have figured out how to beat the Pacers after one game. If Paul George is being shut done by James, the Pacers really don’t have a chance to win this series. Lance Stephenson alone is not going to beat the Heat, and with that in mind, I think Miami has some excellent NBA odds value heading back home.

Miami has now covered three of their last four games against the Pacers overall, both in the regular and postseason, and they have also covered three of their last four games against the Pacers in Miami. The Heat have improved to 7-4 ATS during these playoffs, and with their defense engaged, I think they can beat the Pacers rather easily at home. With that being said, I also believe that 6.5 points offers us great value for our NBA picks.

It might be another situation where the Heat don’t take control until last in the quarter, however at home, and with the crowd behind them, I think Miami can come out and carry over momentum from the previous game in Indy. 

My NBA Pick: Heat -6 ½