Paul George went fishing to clear his head at one point in this series, and he might have an entire offseason to clear his head and go fishing after Thursday night. However the NBA Odds still have the Pacers as favorites in this one at -1 ½ on the road, with a total of 187 ½. Even though the Pacers are 12-19 ATS as a road favorite this regular and postseason, I’m sure there will still be people jumping on them here in Game 6.
However for me, I think the total has a lot more value, and with some of our recent successes with this series, I am totaling once again. We correctly pegged the over in Game 5 as Atlanta dropped a smooth 107 points on the Pacers in Indianapolis, and I don’t think you’ll see the Hawks’ offense slow down much at home.
Even though this is an elimination game and the Pacers will likely come out swinging, Atlanta is still a bad mismatch for the Pacers, and we’ve seen it all series. Indiana was already not a very good road scoring team this regular season, and in a game of this magnitude, you can bet that the Hawks’ fans will be out in force. All of this considered, I think I’m doubling down on the over for Game 6. Atlanta should still be able to get into the upper 90s or even 100 points at home, and if that’s the case, this total is a great value for the over once again.
The Sharp Pick
The Hawks were quietly one of the better scoring teams in the NBA this season. Imagine if they would have had Al Horford all year and in this series! Either way, this team is full of guys who can shoot the ball, and they have a star in the making in Paul Millsap. Their small and athletic lineup is giving huge problems to the Pacers, especially on defense.
Indiana’s offensive woes are beyond me this series, but on defense their problems are coming from the fact that the Hawks may just have a better team offense. Atlanta’s defense has been good in some instances, but it’s not the reason the Pacers are struggling this bad on offense. That is a question that may never be answered, especially if Indiana losses one of their next two games.
The Hawks are now averaging over 96 points per game against the Pacers in this series after that 107 spot they put on them in Game 5. I see absolutely no reason not to like the Hawks’ offense once again here, and as long as they get close to 100 points, this total is going over.
I think one of the reasons this total has not moved much from Game 5 is the fact that when the Hawks have been home underdogs this regular and postseason, they have cashed the under at 13-5. The sportsbooks could be using caution because of this trend, but with the way this series has gone, I can’t see this being another defensive game like Games 3 or 4. Take the over and add it to your NBA Picks for Thursday night.
My Pick: OVER 187 ½