NBA Picks: Pacers vs. Hawks Game 4

Jeff Grant

Monday, April 29, 2013 12:16 PM GMT

Monday, Apr. 29, 2013 12:16 PM GMT

The average margin of victory has been 17.6 points in the first three games between the Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers in their best-of-seven series, but NBA handicappers should anticipate a closer affair at Philips Arena Monday night.


Let’s take a closer look at the NBA odds for Game 4 of this Eastern Conference quarterfinal matchup, with the opening tip scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBATV.

Dominated 

Indiana jumped out to an early 8-1 lead in Game 3 last Saturday, but eventually suffered a 90-69 blowout loss to Atlanta as two-point road underdogs, while going UNDER the betting total of 188.5.

It marked the first time that the Pacers were held to under 70 points dating back to the start of the 2012-13 regular season, while snapping a 5-0 OVER run in this rivalry. 

Over the last two-plus seasons, the Pacers are 6-7 straight up (SU) and 6-6-1 against the spread (ATS) when revenging a road defeat of 20 or more points, with the OVER going 7-6 in that situation. 

Adjustments

Atlanta coach Larry Drew pushed all the right buttons in front of the home crowd last time out, which wasn’t the case in Indiana—where the team suffered a pair of losses by double-digit margins. 

The Hawks are 4-1 SUATS as home favorites of three points or less this season, with the OVER cashing in three of those affairs. 

There’s no place like home 

From a sports betting trend perspective, it’s going to be very hard not to back the Hawks as one of your NBA picks in this contest, considering the home team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings. 

Atlanta has also won 12 consecutive games against Indiana when playing on its home floor, while the UNDER is on a 5-2 run in this series when played at Philips Arena. 

Find out why one SBR poster thinks the Hawks on the Money Line is the way to go tonight.

Free throws

Its been very easy to look past the Hawks struggles at the free throw line in the first three games of this series due to the average margin of victory being 17.6 points, but I’m thinking this will change Monday. 

Atlanta has made just 34 of 62 (54.8%) attempts from the charity stripe thus far, which is well below its 70.9 mark for the entire season.

[gameodds]5/227774/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Pacers as one of their sports picks against the spread in Game 4, as they’ve gone 9-3 ATS following a SU loss of 10 or more points, while the Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. 

NBA Pick:  Indiana Pacers +1.5 at Bet365

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