NBA Picks: Overrated Clippers Defense Won't Stop Warriors from Going 'Over'

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, November 19, 2015 4:33 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 19, 2015 4:33 PM GMT

The final and marquee matchup of the evening is a showdown in LA between the Clippers and Warriors. The NBA Odds have the Dubs as -7 road favorites. Can the Clippers be the ones to win this?

Dub-step
The Warriors have looked virtually unstoppable, and it makes you think that they might have heard all the crap that people were talking about them in the offseason about how injuries to other teams, and especially the Cavs, were the only reason they won a championship. However, I would argue that the reason they won the championship was depth and having the best player in the NBA. Right now, no one is better than Stephen Curry; not Lebron James, not Russell Westbrook and not Kevin Durant. Curry is not only proving to everyone (including the players who voted James Harden as their MVP last season) that he is a force on the court, he is also making his case to join the very exclusive back-to-back MVP club.

However, tonight against the Clippers might be their toughest test to date. Say what you want about the Warriors and how good they have looked this season, but other than a game against these same Clippers in Oakland that they won by four points, and a game the other night against the Raptors in which they only won by five, (they went 0-2 ATS in both those games) tonight is probably their toughest test of the season. Other than those two games, they have not played very good teams so far.

However, that may play better into our play on tonight’s game, because, as much as I would like to take the points with the Clippers, I think a better NBA pick might be the total and the over.

 

The Sharp Pick
These two team’s first meeting of the season in Oakland finished with a final of 112-108, with the total going over easily. However, their last three games of last season all went under the total, but not for a lack of scoring, it was more from huge totals of almost 220 points in two of those three games. Tonight’s NBA odds for the total of 212½ is very much undervaluing the offenses of both teams, and probably overvaluing the Clippers’ defense a lot. On the season, these two teams are combined averaging 219 points per game, and as long as the Warriors can keep up their insane start offensively, (they are averaging nearly 115 points per game) the over is the best play here.

The over has now cashed in five of the Clippers’ last six games this season, and during that span they are averaging 103 points per game, and giving up almost 108 points per game. Los Angeles’ defense has never been good, but for some reason, this belief still exists that they have the ability to be a good defensive team. DeAndre Jordan is a great defender, but he alone cannot make the Clippers a good defensive team. Plus, at this stage of his career, Chris Paul is not the great defender he once was, especially against Curry. I could see a really high scoring game tonight between these two, where the Warriors drop about 118 points, while the Clippers are in the 109-110 range. This makes for one of the best total plays on this short-slated Thursday, so add the over to your NBA Picks for Thursday night.

Free NBA Pick: OVER 212½  at BetOnline

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