NBA Picks: Odds Analysis for Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks

Joe Freda

Sunday, April 7, 2013 12:36 PM GMT

Sunday, Apr. 7, 2013 12:36 PM GMT

Will Portland log another losing ticket or is Dallas too overvalued as road ‘chalk’ here? Here we will review the odds and how these two teams match-up in comparison to the set line.

The Portland Trail Blazers have dropped seven straight games, with a 1-6 ATS mark at NBA betting  windows. Sunday night’s league slate has Terry Stotts’ squad hosting the Dallas Mavericks, who head to Rose Garden with a 2-1 spread mark in the first three games of their present road trip.

Mavericks, Marion down Kings 

Dallas hit a perfect 19-of-19 free throws in Friday’s 117-108 victory over the Sacramento Kings, cashing as a 1 ½-point road dog. The Mavericks connected at a 51.1 percent clip from the floor, leading by as many as 15 points. 

Mavericks forward Shawn Marion piled in team-highs of 25 points and 12 boards, picking up his first double-double in seven games. Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki notched 16 points in 29 minutes of action, while mates Darren Collison and Vince Carter logged eight assists each. 

The contest’s combined 225 points leaped above the ‘total’ of 212 ½, moving the OVER to 7-3 in the Mavericks’ last 10 games. Mavs guard O.J. Mayo came away with two of his side’s seven steals, while center Brandan Wright registered a pair of blocks off the bench. 

Blazers, Aldridge lit up at home 

Portland’s latest defeat came in Friday’s 116-98 setback as a 5 ½-point home dog against the Houston Rockets. The Blazers allowed 51.3 percent field shooting, while being outscored in fast break points, 28-14.

Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge returned from his recent ankle injury, putting up 32 points en route to 13 rebounds. Portland’s Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews united for 29 points and 11 assists, while held to a combined 2-for-13 mark from three-point land. 

The battle’s 214 points jumped OVER the ‘total’ of 210, with Portland sinking 20-of-24 free throws. Blazers mates Victor Claver and Will Barton logged one block each, while both finishing with nine points. 

Also, don't forget to check out Mr. Suarez' pick on the Knicks vs. Thunder!

Back the Blazers at home

5Dimes.eu opened Dallas as a 3 ½-point NBA odds favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 205 ½. Both squads will be off for two days, with Portland hosting the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas returning home to face the Phoenix Suns. 

I am adding a ticket on Portland in this home dog spot, looking for the Blazers to give Dallas a tougher fight than expected here. 

January’s battle at Rose Garden between these rivals saw Portland notch a 106-104 victory, with the Blazers rallying from a 21-point deficit. Portland saw a combined 55 points and 28 boards from LaMarcus Aldridge and J.J. Hickson on that occasion, with the Blazers outscoring the Mavs, 64-45, in the second half. 

Dallas could tire down the stretch again here, playing their third game in four days. The Mavericks have a 1-5 spread record in their last six spots that came after victories, while the favorite is just 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings between these foes. 

Look for the Blazers to end up on the right side of this battle’s betting, with three of their last four home matchups against Dallas decided by three points or less. 

[gameodds]5/224166/19-43-999996-92/us[/gameodds]

NBA Pick: Portland Trail Blazers +3 .5 at 5dimes

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