NBA Picks: Nuggets vs. Warriors Game 6

PJ Laferla

Thursday, May 2, 2013 1:46 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 2, 2013 1:46 PM UTC

The Denver Nuggets will attempt to stave off elimination once again in Game 6 of the NBA Conference Quarterfinals when they visit the Golden State Warriors in a crucial win or go home scenario.

Tip off in this one is scheduled for 10:30 PM EST from the Oracle Arena in Oakland, CA and can be seen live on television; with national broadcast coverage provided by TNT.

As I predicted in my Game 5 picks, Denver finally flexed its muscles and lived to breathe another day, as the Warriors failed to close out the series on the road. While Stephen Curry stole the show, which is often the case, the Nuggets were able to put together a strong overall offensive performance forcing the series to a sixth game.

Several online sportsbooks, including 5Dimes have listed Golden State as slim -1 point favorites at home for Game 6, while posting an over/under number right at 211 points.

Now, let’s take a closer look at each teams numbers and other important factors so we can determine where the best value lies for our NBA picks in this matchup.

Check out our NBA picks of the day to stay ahead of the action.

The Nuggets are now 0-4 ATS in their last four played on the road and 0-5 in their last five overall, failing to cover in any of the first five games in this series thus far. Denver is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Thursday evening.

Denver is 27-11-1 OVER in their last 39 games played on the highway and 7 of their last 9 overall.

Golden State is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on their home court and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 that follow a SU loss. Additionally, the Warriors are a staggering 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.

The Warriors have eclipsed the total in four straight at home and three of five played on a Thursday.

In head to head action, the total has gone OVER the posted total in 18 of the 23 matchups played in Golden State.


The Pick

If the Nuggets want to push this to a seventh game they will once again need to bring a physical presence - especially in front of an amped up Golden State crowd, who have made the Oracle Arena one of the loudest and hostile environments across the NBA.

Golden State will need another strong performance from Curry, Andrew Bogut and the rest of the supporting cast if they want to close of the series and advance to the next round of the playoffs.

I believe the Warriors will get the job done and eliminate the Nuggets as they move on to the next round as a 6th seed.

NBA Free Pick: Golden State -1 at Bet365

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