The NBA odds for Game 3 were really tight and the odds for Game 4 are no different. The Nuggets are -1 ½ favorites with a total of 212. The Nuggets are down but not out, so will they take another devastating blow tonight, or will they tie up the series and send it back to Denver for a pivotal Game 5?
The Nuggets and Warriors were both very high scoring teams in the regular season, and after a Game 1 where the total fell under 200 points, the last two games have been very high scoring, and the total went way over. At 212 points tonight, this one should be pretty close.
I think Denver being down in the series and not wanting to head back to Denver down 1-3, I see them playing a solid game here tonight. The Warriors have been shooting the ball very hot, but the Nuggets should catch fire here tonight as well. Motivation brings offense to the center of things.
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Stephen Curry has always been a great player. However he is taking that next step this season in the playoffs and he might start cementing his legacy in this series. He is having his way with the Nuggets’ defense in this series and while that isn’t saying much, his performance in Games 2 and 3 were phenomenal.
With Ty Lawson not at 100%, this has been the key to this series. Curry is getting in the lane, making his outside shots, and he has been dishing the ball with great accuracy. Even after spraining his non-surgically repaired ankle in Game 2, he exploded for 29 points and 11 assist with only 3 turnovers in Game 3.
The Sharp Pick
Since the spread is so low in this one as it was in Game 3, I see a close game making the spread off limits. That means the total is where I’m going with my NBA Picks tonight, and I think the over is where we need to go.
At 212, the total is high, but I think the over is reasonable tonight. Four of the last five times these two teams have met the total has gone over, and as I mentioned above, the last two games have gone over as well.
Both of these teams play excellent offense, and after Games 2 and 3 where the Nuggets were basically outplayed and out-hustled. If being down 1-2 as the higher seed doesn’t make them play a bit harder on both ends of the floor, I don’t know what will. I see Denver coming out and showing us that patented quick offense that gets into the lane and gets plenty of dunks. On the flip side, Golden State is having their way with the Nuggets’ defense, and I don’t see that improving any time soon. For our free pick tonight, I’m siding with the over slightly.
My Pick: OVER 212 at BET 365