NBA Picks: Nuggets vs. Warriors Game 3

PJ Laferla

Friday, April 26, 2013 2:17 PM GMT

The Golden State Warriors will have a chance to take a 2-1 series lead over the Denver Nuggets tonight as the scenery moves to California and the Oracle Arena for Game 3.


Thus far, the Warriors have cashed in against the spread in the first two matchups. Find out if we think the Warriors can notch their third consecutive cover against the Nuggets.

NBA odds makers have listed this game as a Pick’em, while settling upon a high total of 212 1/2 points. Let’s evaluate this matchup further and determine where the best value lies for our NBA picks in this game.

[gameodds]5/226793/43/us[/gameodds]

Denver barely escaped with a Game1 victory and was manhandled by the Warriors in Game 2 – even without the presence of David Lee. They struggled all night to pull down rebounds and as a result were unable to get fast break points. Additionally, they shot poorly from downtown, hitting just 9 of 26 three point attempts.

The Nuggets are now just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, but they are an impressive 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games that follow a SU loss.

Meanwhile, Golden State shot a staggering 64.6% from the floor, which was the best percentage in a postseason game in 22 years. Back in 1991, the Jazz shot 65.1% against the Phoenix Suns.

The Warriors have now moved to a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six Conference Quarterfinals games and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Total

The Nuggets average nearly 104 points per game on the road (103.9), while surrendering 104.4 to opponents. The Nuggets are over in 11 of their last 14 games played on the road.

The Warriors are scoring an average of 101.8 point per game on their home court, while holding opponents to 97.6. The Warriors are over in 9 of their last 13 when going up against a team with a SU winning record.

In head to head play, the Nuggets and Warriors have eclipsed the total in 16 of the last 21 games played in Golden State.

The Pick

The Warriors could easily be up in this series 2-0 had it not been for a last second shot by Andre Miller. Now, as the series moves to Golden State, we have to expect the Warriors will have all the momentum in this game behind their hometown fans.

NBA Free Playoff Pick: Warriors – Pick’em at 5Dimes

For more free plays on tonight's games check out our NBA Picks of the Day article.