Denver is on the second night of a back to back, as they played and beat down Utah last night in Denver, 110-91.
The NBA Odds for tonight’s game favor the Lakers at home at -3, with a rather large total of 211 points. With the Nuggets likely tired from their travel last night, and the Lakers struggling to find any sort of chemistry, what will the outcome of tonight’s game look like? I’m here to tell you exactly where I believe we can find the best value for our NBA picks.
Denver; undisputed home team champ
I don’t know if it’s just that home is where the heart is, or as Farmer Fran said in Waterboy, “home is where you make it,” but the Nuggets dominate people when they come to the Mile High City and play in the Pepsi Center.
Denver is 10-3 ATS at home this season, and an even more impressive 11-2 SU when playing at the Pepsi Center. Alas, this game is not being played at home for Denver, and on the road, the Nuggets have traditionally not been good with this group. Denver is 8-14 SU and 11-11 ATS on the road this season.
That makes this NBA betting spread very difficult to bet, as it is only -3 points. The Lakers have the rest and the motivation, but Denver, much like the Thunder and even the Grizzlies, is a team that is built to beat the Lakers. They are big up front when they need to be, they are fast, and they can score the ball with the best. While their defense is a work in progress, (22nd in NBA at 99 points per game) they have the talent to take out the Lakers on the road.
“Old damn team”
The Lakers are getting closer and closer to the trade deadline, and like a lot of teams this season, the decision to buy or sell depends a lot on the next six and a half weeks. The Lakers are in the midst of a tough stretch of games right now, and this one tonight might be the only time they are favored in the next four games or so.
After almost coming back against the Clippers on Friday evening, the Lakers got the day to rest before getting Denver tonight. There are 1000 things that could be said about this game and this team, but in the end, the Lakers need stops to get wins, period.
If LA can’t stop the likes of Ty Lawson, Andre Iguodala and Danilo Gallanari, or at least slow them all down, they will lose another home game. The Lakers have already lost seven of those this season, and if they don’t some how find a way to play defense, the Nuggets are going to score at will even if they are a bit tired from last night’s game.
The Sharp Pick
There is once again too much uncertainty with this spread, as the Nuggets are sometimes bad on the road, and the Lakers…well they’re the Lakers. Even though it’s a big time 211 points, I’m siding with another total today, and betting the over. Both teams will score 100 points on one another, and then it boils down to if it’s close or not. The books seem to think the game will be close, and so do I. I also think we are going to see some nice offense from both teams. Even though the Nuggets are on the second night of a back to back, I think their defense will suffer, especially against a physical team like LA.
My Pick: OVER 211 at 5Dimes