NBA Picks: Nuggets vs. Kings

Joe Catalano

Tuesday, March 5, 2013 2:32 PM GMT

The Denver Nuggets (39-22) look to make it 6 straight wins tonight when they travel out West to meet the Sacramento Kings (21-40). Let our free NBA picks point you in the right direction in this matchup.

Sacramento is coming off of a sound beating of the Charlotte Bobcats. Can the Kings pull of the upset? Let's breakdown this matchup to find where the best NBA betting value lies in this matchup.

Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 pm ET tonight at the Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, California.

The NBA odds makers at 5Dimes lists the Nuggets as a 5 point betting favorite and the total for the game is listed at 221.

How High Will It Go?

When you take into account that Denver ranks 25th in points allowed while the Kings rank 30th and Denver ranks 3rd in points scored and the Kings are nearing the 100 point mark in scoring, this could be an old school Denver game; the 1980’s team that possessed Alex English and Kiki Vandeweghe and scored in the 110’s and 120’s every single night.

No Definitive Star

It’s amazing that Denver can play so well without a definitive superstar. They’ve managed to beat the likes of the OKC Thunder and Atlanta Hawks without a consistent 20 point per game scorer. In this game, DeMarcus Cousins of the Kings is actually the only legitimate superstar playing.

The King of China Returns

After the players and management reached an agreement last season after the NBA Lockout, Wilson Chandler decided to stay in China for the rest of the season. Chandler had been a 15 to 16 point per game scorer for the Knicks, but in China, he was a god.

Chandler has returned to the United States this season and has underachieved a bit, averaging 11.3 points and 5 rebounds per game. He’s been inconsistent, but on a team like the Nuggets, there’s always someone to pick up the slack.

For one shining moment against OKC, Chandler returned to his dominant form with 35 points and it resulted in a Denver victory over possibly the best team in the NBA. If Wilson Chandler can return to his old form, Denver moves from a 4-6 team in the Western Conference to a top 3 team.

Ty Lawson

This is a team with inconsistent scorers such as Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried. Ty Lawson is the glue that keeps Denver together with his consistency. He’s coming off of his typical 18 point, 8 assist performance in a victory over Atlanta. This is a game where Lawson is unmatched. Look for a big game out of Ty Lawson.

Beating a Bottom Feeder

A win is a win, and a 26 point beating will feed the egos of the Sacramento Kings who are bottom feeders themselves.

Bench or Starter?

At one point, Marcus Thornton was one of the best players on the Kings team. Now, they’ve subjected him to the bench, but it hasn’t seemed to slow him down. He’s averaging just 12.6 points per game but in his last 5 games, is averaging 22.2 points, 50% shooting from 3 point range, and 29.2 minutes per game.

The problem is that Thornton is solely a scorer and won’t provide much else; a Kevin Martin if you will. Most of the time, you’ll find those type of players on the bench. Thornton needs encouragement; the more he plays, the more he scores. I expect him to see a lot of “PT”, coming off of an 18 point performance in just 20 minutes against Charlotte.

[gameodds]5/220287/43/us[/gameodds]

Head to Head Trends

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings

Nuggets are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings

Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings

Outcome

I’m not going to touch the side; Sacramento might decide to show up after their last game. Both of these teams have no defense whatsoever. Don’t let the total scare you in what should be a track meet.

Free NBA Pick: Denver/Sacramento OVER 221

For another take on this game, as well as a few other free picks take a look at out NBA Picks: Tuesday Night NBA Betting Ticket.