NBA Picks: Nuggets vs. Heat to go 'Over' Total

Jordan Sharp

Friday, March 14, 2014 12:33 PM GMT

Friday, Mar. 14, 2014 12:33 PM GMT

The NBA Odds have the Heat as -10 ½ home favorites tonight, with a total of 214. Will the Heat break out of their slump, or will the Nuggets show up and cover the spread?

The Miami Heat have been really struggling over the last week, and although I will stop short of saying they are in danger of losing out on a title hunt, they are showing some signs of fatigue. Things won’t get much easier tonight, as the Denver Nuggets come to town. 

LBJ has DNA

I know watching Lebron James play makes you want to believe that he is some perfectly engineered, sub-human basketball player, but the truth of the matter is, he puts his pants on one leg at a time, and he is in fact human. James has failed to reach 25 points frequently over the last five or six games for the Heat, and this is a big problem for a team heading down the stretch.

James has already said he wants to win another MVP, but could it come at the cost of another title for Miami? I’m not sure if I’ll go that far, but the Heat are in a position where they might have to choose between having a rested Lebron going into the playoffs, or having a tired, but MVP Lebron. I think both the team and Lebron will end of choosing the former, but at this point, the Heat need to win, and James isn’t getting any extra rest tonight.

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The Sharp Pick

Instead of wasting our precious time and recourses on this inflated spread, the total seems like a much safer and more valuable wager tonight. The Heat’s recent struggles have come with a lapse in their offense, however going against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA tonight should help solve that. The Heat gave failed to crack 100 points scored in four straight games, but that should change going against one of the league’s worst defensive teams.

The Nuggets getting Ty Lawson back recently is huge for them, but it hasn’t solved their defensive woes despite Lawson being a plus defender. The Nuggets have given up 115 points per game in their last 5 games, and 112 points per game in their last ten games. I expect about the same output from Miami tonight, even with their slump looming.

The total has gone over in five of Denver’s last six games as well, mostly due to how many points they have been giving up during that six game stretch. Even if the Nuggets some how improve their defense tonight, it won’t be by much. The Heat also excel on offense against the West this season, which won’t help the Denver defense.

Miami is scoring an average of 106 points per game when playing against a Western Conference foe this season, and despite not hitting 100 points in their last four games, they should jump back on it at home. In what should be a fast paced game for both teams, I see the over having great value at 214. Even though it’s a bit high compared to some of the other totals out tonight, don’t hesitate to add the over to your NBA Picks tonight.

My Pick: OVER 214

[gameodds]5/258529/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

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