NBA Picks: Nets vs. Pacers

Jeff Grant

Monday, February 11, 2013 3:10 PM GMT

The Nets hope to avoid falling three times in a row, but the NBA odds makers seem to think that they will have a hard time matching up with the Pacers tonight. Can the Nets cover the 8 points tonight, or are bettors smart to back the Pacers with their NBA picks?


The Indiana Pacers have won five consecutive home games against the Brooklyn Nets, as the two Eastern Conference rivals meet Monday night at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

Also check out my Free NBA Pick on the Clippers & 76ers matchup.

Losing steam

Brooklyn has lost two games in a row, including a 111-86 blowout defeat to the San Antonio Spurs as 2.5-point home underdogs last night, while going OVER the posted total of 194.5. The Nets will try to build some type of momentum heading into the NBA All-Star break, but they’ve gone 10-19-1 against the spread (ATS) in February the last two-plus seasons.

Quite a stretch

Indiana received a much needed two-day break, as it suffered a 100-98 overtime loss to the Toronto Raptors as seven-point home favorites last time out, which directly followed the only back-to-back-to-back situation that a team has played this year in the NBA.

Looing at the NBA odds, the Pacers deserve a long look, being that they’ve gone 12-2 ATS following a straight-up loss this year, which includes covering the spread by an average of 9.4 points on average when playing at home in that situation.

Series history

I’ve never been a big fan of backing an NBA team in their final road game before the All-Star break, especially when that side has enjoyed little success at a particular venue. Brooklyn has lost five games in a row in Indianapolis, while the underdog is 7-19 ATS in the last 26 meetings in this series.

With that being said, the Nets have won and covered the spread in their last two games against the Pacers, including a 97-86 win as 4.5-point home favorites on Jan. 13, while going OVER the posted total of 181.

Quite a disparity

The Pacers are definitely playing some of their best basketball of the 2012-13 campaign, as they’ve held a 102.6 to 92.4-point advantage over their last five opponents, while the Nets have been outscored by 8.4 points in the same span. 

From a situational standpoint, Indiana has covered the number in six of its last eight games with two days rest, while Brooklyn is 4-10 ATS when playing without a day off.

[gameodds]5/217930/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Pacers as one of their NBA picks against the spread, as the Nets are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS as road underdogs of 6.5 to 9 points. You’re definitely paying a premium on the host due to the recent performances of each side, but Brooklyn may start peeking ahead to some time off.

NBA Pick: Indiana Pacers -8 at BetOnline

Check out our Free NBA Picks: Monday Value Plays for more NBA betting selections.