Another bump in the road
The Nets may have had success against the Heat in the regular season, but as I mentioned in both my Game 1 play on this series, as well as the series article, the postseason is a whole different animal. This is especially true when you’re dealing with the Miami Heat, who seem to have that rare ability to flip a switch on when they really want to play hard.
That could be one of the reasons Miami dominated the Nets so badly in Game 1, and now the NBA odds are going up. The spread is at -8 in favor of the Heat, with a total of 192. Even though we easily cashed on Tuesday night by placing our NBA pick on the Heat, now that the spread is higher, does that lessen the value?
I think it does. The Nets should come out much more focused on the defensive end of the floor, and I expect their intensity to pick up some on that end as well. Playing solid defense is the only thing that will keep Brooklyn competitive in this series, but even that may not be enough.
I do think it will give the total a lot of value in Game 2, and at 192, the total looks ripe for an 'under' bet. Not only do I think the defense will be much more engaged in Game 2, but the total is a little high. Despite the game getting out of hand early on Tuesday, the total still didn’t go over by more than a point or two. Assuming the Heat don’t run away with this one in the second half and score 61 points again after halftime, this total looks primed for an 'under' wager on Thursday.
The Sharp Pick
Even though the 'over' cashed in Game 1, the total has still gone 'under' in two of the last three meetings between these two, and as I mentioned above, the total barely cashed the 'over' in Game 1. In fact, before Game 1 of this series, the 'under' had cashed in the last five straight times these two had played one another in Miami.
I think the Nets will have to make some more adjustments if they want to put themselves in a position to tie this series heading back to the borough. The adjustment last series of moving Alan Anderson into the starting lineup not only helped their defense some, but their shooting as well which was not good in Game 1. If Anderson moved back into the staring lineup, it might help their defense on Dwyane Wade as well as Ray Allen who both had good Game 1’s.
Either way, the Nets will not allow the Heat to run all over them again here, and I expect a much better defensive game from the Nets. The Heat will continue to be engaged defensively, and it should lead to the 'under' having a lot of value on Thursday.
Free NBA Pick: Bet 'Under' 192.