I mentioned in my series article that I am having 2011 flashbacks when it comes to this series. Remember the lockout season where Miami lost to Dallas? Well, in that season of only 66 games, the Bulls beat Miami twice pretty soundly in the regular season. It was almost a similar situation to what we have here, however the NBA Odds have the Heat as -7 favorites at home, with a total of 191 ½.
In the Eastern Conference Finals, a lot of people thought Derrick Rose and the Bulls had a chance to upset the newly formed Heat. Their team was much better than what Brooklyn is right now, and despite going undefeated against Miami in the regular season, the Heat beat the Bulls in five games, and eventually went on to lose to the Mavs in the Finals. Even though the Bulls won Game 1 of that series, (something I sincerely doubt Brooklyn can upset Miami here) that game was in Chicago.
The Nets are far from where the Bulls were that year with a healthy Derrick Rose. Without Brook Lopez, or any other rim protector versus the Heat, the Nets stand no chance in Game 1. They should be pretty worn down from their seven games series that just ended, and after having over a week off, I expect the Heat to come out and make a statement in this game after losing their last four to the Nets.
The Sharp Pick
While I’m not projecting this to happen, it would not surprise me at all to see this series go to only five games. The Nets will probably win at least one game, and maybe two, but the Heat are not going to take this team lightly. It’s more likely they take their potential Eastern Conference Finals opponent lightly than this mix of hated veterans on Brooklyn.
Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and probably a few other guys on the Nets cannot stand the Heat, and even if they can’t beat them, they can beat them up on their way to the Eastern Conference Finals. However as I said, they will not beat the Heat.
In the Big Three Era, the Miami Heat are 30-20 ATS in the playoffs, and that is somewhat surprising. You would think they would be overvalued too much to have that good of a win percentage ATS, however more recently the sportsbooks are giving them more room. Tonight at -7 is a perfect example.
The spread is low due to the Nets’ regular season record, versus Miami, however we have already decided that means little to nothing when deciding our NBA picks. The Heat are rested, they are motivated, and they are a more athletic team than Brooklyn.
The Nets could very well steal one in Miami due to their veteran prowess. However I sincerely doubt it’s going to be this first one. Miami is like a pit viper waiting for its prey to wander into its vicinity. The Nets are the mice, and Tuesday night is feasting night.
My NBA Pick: Heat -7